Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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Recidivism in Australia: findings and future research
Conclusion
This section commenced with the observation that interpreting recidivism is seemingly
straightforward, but its practical definition and application are complex and context specific.
Recidivism was conceptualised as a basic sequential model with three key elements:
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a sample – the target group of offenders for whom recidivism is being measures
the indicator events – the data source and counting rules used when identifying recidivism
the observation period – the time period over which the indicator events are observed
and counted.
All recidivism research can be understood and interpreted within this framework, but each
study differs in the definition of each key element. Both index and indicator events may
be defined according to a variety of different criteria, including:
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an offender’s demographic or prior offending profile
their current offence type
their contact with the criminal justice system
their residential or other geographical location
the time period studied.
Time is inherent in all recidivism models, as recidivist offending must be observed as a sequence
of events separated by units of time. Recidivism studies often differ in the length of time over
which events are observed. This has obvious implications for the interpretation of recidivism
estimates. The longer an individual is followed, the more likely it is that any recidivist events
will be indicated.
The methods used to measure criminal events have implications for the resulting estimates:
• aggregate offence categories may be classified differently between studies – that is, broad
categories such as property or violent offence may include different combinations of offences.
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some individual offences may be classified differently between studies. Robbery, for example,
may be classified as a property or violent offence.
events occurring at the same time may be aggregated into episodic measurement
units, or disaggregated into incident analysis.
where episodic analysis is used, studies typically use most serious offence or most serious
penalty classification, which may underestimate underlying offending behaviours and patterns.