Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

x Moreover, once the event of recidivism is defined by what will or will not be included as a recidivist event, researchers are required to make decisions about the rules applied to counting these events. Some studies utilise aggregation techniques that pool together groups of offences into a single offending episode, while others may measure all events regardless of whether they resulted from a single offending incident. Both measures, even if conducted using the same data source and for the same sample of offenders, are likely to produce significantly different estimates of recidivism. The final key element of recidivism is the observation period – the length of time over which offending is to be observed. In the research environment, this is termed the follow-up period, and is the number of days, months or years for which recidivism data have been obtained. This report highlights a number of key issues to be considered when interpreting recidivism analysis with varying observation periods: • • • • longer observation periods offer a greater opportunity to observe criminal events short observation periods may be limited in the extent to which offending may be observed, but allow of more timely and perhaps less costly analysis there is no gold standard observation period, but decisions about appropriate length should be driven by the research questions and aims, and consider how the data chosen may impact on the timely identification of criminal events. For a single offence, arrest occurs chronologically prior to conviction and conviction prior to imprisonment. To observe that offence at each point may require different observation periods not only do observation periods vary between studies, but the length of an observation period may vary between individuals within the chosen sample. Specific longitudinal analyses are needed to account for these variations. In concluding, this report reiterates the problem of recidivism – that the context of recidivism and the questions the research seeks to identify affect the selection of the sample, the identification and quantification of the indictor events and the specification of the observation period. Each has a unique impact on the definition of recidivism, but combined, they result in very specific definitions. Those undertaking recidivism research or those interpreting it for the purposes of policy and program development would be well served to ask the following questions of the information that is presented: • • When, where and for whom is the research undertaken? Context in this sense shapes the research questions and can assist in the identification of broad level variations in research results. What sample was chosen and what specific characteristics of that sample prevent wider application or generalisation?
• • What data are used to identify criminal events and how are they defined and counted? Understanding the limitations imposed by the data and counting methods is paramount to understanding when and how much recidivism is measured. How long was recidivism observed and to what extent has the observation period limited the identification of recidivism? Are observation periods different within the sample, and if so, what methods have been used to account for these differences? Australian recidivism research The second aim of this report was to provide a synopsis of the Australian recidivism literature, highlighting key findings and conclusions. This was undertaken with caution, for much of the previous discussion highlighted just how recidivism research should not be compared, contrasted or generalised without appropriate consideration of the key elements. Nonetheless, this report combines similar Australia research studies into subject areas in an effort to describe what is currently known (and not known) about recidivism. The first section deals with the recidivism of adult prisoners. This includes their retrospective self-reported and administratively recorded prior offending and imprisonment, as well as their prospectively measured reappearance, reconviction and reimprisonment. Although the studies vary widely in context and across the key methodological elements, they show a number of interesting findings: • • • • about two in every three prisoners will have been previously imprisoned about one in four prisoners will be reconvicted within three months of being released from prison between 35 and 41 percent of prisoners will be reimprisoned within two years of being released the recidivism rates (regardless of how they were measured) appear reasonably consistent over time. Second, the report deals with recidivism of adult offenders from studies that have selected convenience samples at different stages of the criminal justice system, but not including prisoners. There are fewer studies of generalised offender samples than there are of prisoners, however similar self-report and administrative methodologies have been used. The studies show that: • approximately 50 percent of adult police arrestees will have been arrested at least once in the past 12 months, and approximately one in five will have spent time in prison in the past 12 months xi
Page 1: Recidivism in Australia: findings a
Page 4 and 5: © Australian Institute of Criminol
Page 6 and 7: iv This report identifies three pri
Page 8 and 9: vi Are adjustments needed in observ
Page 10 and 11: viii In essence, this report highli
Page 14 and 15: xii • • • between 50 and 60 p
Page 16 and 17: xiv Finally, the report highlights
Page 18 and 19: 2 Recidivism in Australia: findings
Page 26 and 27: 10 Recidivism in Australia: finding
Page 62 and 63:
46 Recidivism in Australia: finding
Page 64 and 65:
Page 66 and 67:
Page 68 and 69:
Page 70 and 71:
54 Rate per 1,000 prisoners Recidiv
Page 72 and 73:
Page 74 and 75:
Page 76 and 77:
Page 78 and 79:
Page 80 and 81:
Page 82 and 83:
Page 84 and 85:
Page 86 and 87:
Page 88 and 89:
Page 90 and 91:
Page 92 and 93:
Page 94 and 95:
Page 96 and 97:
Page 98 and 99:
Page 100 and 101:
Page 102 and 103:
Page 104 and 105:
Page 106 and 107:
Page 108 and 109:
Page 110 and 111:
Page 112 and 113:
Page 114 and 115:
Page 116 and 117:
100 Recidivism in Australia: findin
Page 118 and 119:
Page 120 and 121:
Page 122 and 123:
Page 124 and 125:
Page 126 and 127:
Page 128 and 129:
References
Page 130 and 131:
Page 132 and 133:
Page 134 and 135:
Page 136 and 137:
Appendix A
Page 138 and 139:
Page 140 and 141:
Page 142 and 143:
Page 144 and 145:
Page 146 and 147:
Page 148 and 149:
Page 150 and 151:
Page 152 and 153:
Page 154 and 155:
Page 156:
Research and Public Policy Series N
show all

Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?