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Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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6<br />

<strong>Recidivism</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>Australia</strong>: f<strong>in</strong>d<strong>in</strong>gs <strong>and</strong> <strong>future</strong> <strong>research</strong><br />

Figure 1: Simplified model of recidivism <strong>research</strong><br />

In what context <strong>and</strong><br />

for what purpose is<br />

the <strong>research</strong> be<strong>in</strong>g<br />

undertaken?<br />

Sample (1)<br />

Research purpose <strong>and</strong> context<br />

#<br />

Time (3)<br />

# # #<br />

What data are<br />

used to identify<br />

crim<strong>in</strong>al events?<br />

Over what length of time should<br />

crim<strong>in</strong>al events be observed <strong>and</strong><br />

are any adjustments needed?<br />

Indicator events (2)<br />

What methods of<br />

quantification are<br />

used when count<strong>in</strong>g<br />

crim<strong>in</strong>al events?<br />

Fundamental to this model is the purpose <strong>and</strong> context with<strong>in</strong> which the <strong>research</strong> is undertaken.<br />

<strong>Recidivism</strong> <strong>research</strong> can be grouped <strong>in</strong>to one of three broad categories depend<strong>in</strong>g on the aim<br />

<strong>and</strong> objectives. The first category – generally referred to as prevalence studies – attempt to<br />

estimate the size of the recidivist population as well as the proportion of all offences attributable<br />

to recidivists. There are two types of prevalence studies: those that aim to measure recidivism<br />

among a total population (such as a cohort of all persons born <strong>in</strong> a particular year) <strong>and</strong> those<br />

that take as their start<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>t a particular group of known offenders <strong>and</strong> seek to estimate the<br />

extent to which this group reoffends. Two studies undertaken <strong>in</strong> South <strong>Australia</strong> illustrate the<br />

differences <strong>in</strong> these approaches. One took as its start<strong>in</strong>g po<strong>in</strong>t, all young people born <strong>in</strong> that<br />

state <strong>in</strong> 1984 <strong>and</strong> found that 83 percent were never apprehended by police dur<strong>in</strong>g their juvenile<br />

years, while 17 percent were apprehended at least once. The second study concentrated on<br />

that subset of the same birth cohort who had actually been apprehended on at least one<br />

occasion <strong>and</strong> found that 44 percent had been apprehended multiple times (Skrzypiec 2005).<br />

The different results obta<strong>in</strong>ed by these two studies are simply due to the different samples used.

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