Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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32 Recidivism in Australia: findings and future research Figure 4: Identifying recidivism events using criminal justice data sources In terms of the total pool of offence episodes committed by an offender, this hypothetical illustration demonstrates a generally accepted principle in recidivism research (see Guarnieri 1993) – that the further into the criminal justice process recidivism is measured: • • 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 the greater the probability that recidivism will be underestimated and the greater the probability that an offender will be labelled as a non-recidivist when in actual fact, they had reoffended 1 the lower the probability that recidivism will be overestimated and the lower the probability that a non-recidivist offender would be incorrectly labelled as a recidivist. What does it mean to be a non-recidivist? 6 5 6 5 9 10 Self-reported Apprehension Appearance Conviction Imprisonment Much of this report so far has been dedicated to showing how and when an offender may be labelled a recidivist. It has demonstrated how the specification of the key elements can underestimate or overestimate an individual’s offending. The discussion has thus far been directed at the identification of recidivism and when it occurs. Before concluding, it is perhaps useful to take a different perspective and ask what it means for an offender to be a non-recidivist? That is, when an offender has no further recorded criminal events, is it that they have been rehabilitated, or is it something else? 9 6 9 12 months 24 months 9
Key elements of recidivism This question has been largely answered by looking at the extent to which each of the data sources underestimates offending. In every instance of underestimation is a pool of possible offences that are not being identified throughout the research. However there are a number of other important issues to be considered. First, inter-jurisdictional offending is unlikely to be counted as recidivism because each state and territory operates a separate criminal justice system and therefore the administrative data collected within one jurisdiction will pertain only to offences committed in that jurisdiction. Should an offender have a police apprehension, court appearance or corrective services record in another jurisdiction, results will underestimate recidivism. This includes both retrospective and prospective criminal history analysis. The inability to measure criminal events across state and territory borders is likely to have its greatest impact in situations where mobility is high. In general, the probability that an offender may have moved interstate or overseas, or committed offences in another jurisdiction is high where the study examines criminal events over a protracted period of time (for example, lifetime criminal history analysis) or where the offender resides in an area close to state borders. Take, for example, the relatively small jurisdiction of the Australian Capital Territory. Although it has an independent policing and criminal justice system, it is completely encircled by New South Wales. Moreover, it is situated less than 300km from the outer suburban boundary of Sydney, Australia’s largest city. It is not unreasonable to expect that an offender in the ACT may commit offences across the border, and have a criminal history record in both jurisdictions. Second is an offender’s incapacitation. Being incarcerated is one example, where an offender is unlikely to obtain additional police apprehension records for the period of their imprisonment. Third is an offender’s complete removal from opportunity for reoffending – serious chronic illness and hospitalisation, or death will render an offender incapable of having additional contact with the criminal justice system. 33
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