Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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14 Recidivism in Australia: findings and future research • • • • be over 18 years of age live within the geographical location of the drug court be likely to face a term of imprisonment plead guilty to their current charges (Payne 2005). The specifications by which a sample of offenders is selected and their offending is examined are therefore crucial to understanding the recidivism estimates. They help identify the group of offenders to whom the recidivism results can be generalised, as well as the groups to which they cannot. In the hypothetical example cited above, the recidivism results can be safely said to apply to the participants of the prison-based sex offender treatment program in New South Wales. It cannot, however, be assumed that they can be generalised to other populations of sex offenders, such as those who did not participate in the program, or those who participated in a different sex offender treatment program, or those who were not imprisoned – unless of course samples of these latter groups were included as controls or comparison groups. Although comparative analysis is possible, generalising the results to similar programs operating in different contexts (such as interstate or at different periods of time), should be undertaken with caution. It is not necessarily the case that research conducted within one jurisdictional or temporal context will be transferable to another. In terms of jurisdictional context, this is because there are different procedures by which policing and criminal justice services are delivered, different laws under which offenders can be charged and prosecuted, and different data systems used to capture the relevant information. In terms of temporal context, this is because the criminal justice system is not static, but is subject to significant and sometimes rapid change. Over time, criminal justice policies, policing practices, laws and data recording methods change, each having the potential to impact the ability to generalise recidivism results across different temporal contexts. Understanding the context of the research is about understanding the limitations imposed by the parameters of the research in terms of who is observed, when and where. Using this formula, recidivism research can be deconstructed and an appreciation of the extent to which the results may be generalised across different offending populations, jurisdictions and time periods developed. While the earlier example of offenders involved in a sex treatment program is hypothetical, it is not far from the reality of recidivism research. Following are two examples from the Australian research literature, to illustrate how context has significant implications for the interpretation and generalisation of recidivism results.
Examples from the Australian literature Evaluating a police operation Key elements of recidivism In 2004, the AIC conducted a recidivism study to examine the effectiveness of an Australian Federal Police operation in the Australian Capital Territory (Makkai et al. 2004). Operation Anchorage used intelligence-led, targeted policing to apprehend known recidivist offenders in an effort to reduce local property crime. The research was commissioned by the ACT Department of Justice and Community Safety to determine the effectiveness of the operation, in conjunction with changes in the ACT Bail Act 1992, in prolonging an offender’s return to offending. The results of the study suggested that, by targeting recidivist property offenders, police could have a real impact in reducing property crime rates, primarily through the incapacitation effects of incarceration. The context of the research – the question of who, where and when – provides an interesting dimension to the interpretation of the results. For example, the study focused on a sample of property offenders apprehended during a policing operation in which the police intentionally targeted high volume offenders. Although shown to be successful for these offenders, the same cannot be said of low volume or first time property offenders, or offenders who committed other offences, such as good order or violent offences. The study was conducted in the ACT, a metropolitan region with particular suburb and population characteristics (see Ratcliffe 2001). There is no reason to expect that the same effect would be achieved had the operation been conducted in the metropolitan regions of Sydney, Melbourne or Brisbane where key suburban characteristics vary. Finally, the timing of the operation was coordinated with changes to the ACT Bail Act 1992 that modified the presumption of bail for recidivist offenders. This meant that a recidivist offender apprehended by the police would not be granted bail a second time, but would be remanded. The study clearly showed that a significant contributing factor to the success of the operation was the greater use of incapacitation through incarceration. Given this, it would be difficult to conclude that the same policing operation would have been effective (and the same recidivism rates achieved) if the changes to the Act had not been introduced. 15
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Research and Public Policy Series N
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