Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

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Recidivism in Australia: findings and future research
What is known about recidivist offenders?
Recidivism is as much about knowing when it occurs as who engages in it. As discussed
earlier, the analysis of recidivism provides a unique opportunity to develop and implement
evidence-based criminal justice policy targeted at high volume offenders. The premise is that
by specifically targeting criminal justice resources to recidivist offenders, tangible reductions
in crime may be achieved. To do this, policy makers must have an appreciation of the
personal, developmental or situational characteristics that give rise to reoffending.
Insofar as a comparative analysis of recidivism rates is hampered by contextual and methodological
variance, understanding of the factors associated with recidivism is also affected. What in one study
appears to be a significant contributing factor to the propensity for reoffending, in another may
be not be an important factor at all. Should we expect that gender, for example, will be equally
important as a correlate of reimprisonment as it is for reconviction? Should we expect that if
Indigenous prison releasees are more likely to be reimprisoned, that Indigenous arrestees are more
likely to be arrested? Perhaps not, given that both the sample of offenders and the measure of
recidivism between the studies are likely to be significantly different.
Moreover, in recidivism analysis that seeks to identify correlates of reoffending, we are confronted
by two new methodological issues not already discussed in this report. The first is that the definition
and measurement of the so called correlates may also vary between studies. For example, the
definition of juvenile in one context may be different from another –in Queensland, a juvenile
offender was once defined any person under the age of 17 years, whereas in New South Wales,
the term juvenile includes persons under the age of 18 years. Another example may be drug
use, where one study uses drug dependency as its measure, while another uses frequency
of use.
The second issue relates to the methods used to analyse and identify the impact of a correlate
on recidivism. Although the purpose of this report is not to describe in detail the number
of analytical methods and tests that can be used in recidivism analysis, it is important to
recognise that these techniques may also affect whether a factor is identified as significant
or not. Multivariate analysis – analysis that takes into account multiple explanatory factors
in a single predictive model – offers an advantage in that it can isolate the independent effect
of a factor, for example Indigenous status, after taking account of the other factors in the
model. What appears as significant in a simple bivariate test of significance, may not be
in a more complex multivariate model that controls for other covariates.
This section summarises the key findings from the Australian literature on the correlates
of recidivism. Situations are illustrated where the correlates appear consistent across multiple
contexts and despite multiple methodologies, as well as situations where they are not.