Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

14
Recidivism in Australia: findings and future research
•
•
•
•
be over 18 years of age
live within the geographical location of the drug court
be likely to face a term of imprisonment
plead guilty to their current charges (Payne 2005).
The specifications by which a sample of offenders is selected and their offending is examined
are therefore crucial to understanding the recidivism estimates. They help identify the group of
offenders to whom the recidivism results can be generalised, as well as the groups to which
they cannot. In the hypothetical example cited above, the recidivism results can be safely said
to apply to the participants of the prison-based sex offender treatment program in New South
Wales. It cannot, however, be assumed that they can be generalised to other populations of
sex offenders, such as those who did not participate in the program, or those who participated
in a different sex offender treatment program, or those who were not imprisoned – unless of
course samples of these latter groups were included as controls or comparison groups.
Although comparative analysis is possible, generalising the results to similar programs
operating in different contexts (such as interstate or at different periods of time), should be
undertaken with caution. It is not necessarily the case that research conducted within one
jurisdictional or temporal context will be transferable to another. In terms of jurisdictional
context, this is because there are different procedures by which policing and criminal justice
services are delivered, different laws under which offenders can be charged and prosecuted,
and different data systems used to capture the relevant information. In terms of temporal
context, this is because the criminal justice system is not static, but is subject to significant
and sometimes rapid change. Over time, criminal justice policies, policing practices, laws
and data recording methods change, each having the potential to impact the ability to
generalise recidivism results across different temporal contexts.
Understanding the context of the research is about understanding the limitations imposed
by the parameters of the research in terms of who is observed, when and where. Using this
formula, recidivism research can be deconstructed and an appreciation of the extent to which
the results may be generalised across different offending populations, jurisdictions and time
periods developed. While the earlier example of offenders involved in a sex treatment
program is hypothetical, it is not far from the reality of recidivism research. Following are
two examples from the Australian research literature, to illustrate how context has significant
implications for the interpretation and generalisation of recidivism results.