Recidivism in Australia : findings and future research - Australian ...

The data source used to identify recidivism will also be an important consideration
when deciding on an optimal observation period. As previously illustrated, recidivism
can be measured using administrative data, such as police apprehension records, court
appearance and conviction records, or incarceration records. Each record represents
the chronological sequence of an offence as it passes through the criminal justice system.
For this reason, a single offence that is recorded in all systems will first appear as a police
apprehension, followed some time later as a court appearance, conviction and possibly
incarceration. If recidivism is measured using data sources at later points of the criminal
justice system, the likely time frame in which to expect these events to occur must be
considered. Recidivism analysis over 12 months may be sufficient when using police
apprehension data, but not for incarceration data because of the much longer period
of time required for a criminal event to proceed from apprehension to incarceration.
Are adjustments needed in observations?
Key elements of recidivism
Two important concepts have been discussed – the beginning and end of the observation
period – and the factors to consider when determining the period for which an offender’s
recidivist behaviour is observed. However, the observation period is not always measured
as a single, uninterrupted timeline. In fact, it is possible for an offender to be incapacitated
for a portion of their observation period, during which time they are technically unable
to engage in recidivist activities. Their ‘free time’ is defined as the proportion of their free
time that they were free and able to reoffend. Although incapacitation can occur for many
different reasons such as illness or hospitalisation, imprisonment is the primary consideration
in recidivism research.
Consider the hypothetical example of two offenders, each having committed 10 offence
episodes within one year. Without knowledge of any periods of incapacitation, each has
an estimated offence rate of 10 offences for every 365 days in observation. Suppose
however that one offender was incarcerated twice during that year, for a total of six months.
For this offender, the ten offences were committed within the six- month period he/she
was free and able to reoffend, and his/her adjusted offending rate is twice that of the other
offender who was not incarcerated at any stage during that 365 day observation period.
Findings from the literature are divided on the importance of free time adjustment. Several studies
have shown that such adjustments have little influence on overall recidivism estimates (Makkai et
al. 2004), while others have shown that results can vary when free time is used as the basis for
analysis (Lind et al. 2002). If individuals within the sample are expected to have multiple and
lengthy periods of contact with prison or other forms of incapacitation, adjustment seems warranted.
However, in other studies where only a few offenders are likely to be imprisoned and for relatively
short periods of time during the observation period, adjustment may not be necessary.
47