The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

A 3.5 Country-specific comments – Great Britain
Reference Scenario
Reference Scenario Radial Design Map
Reference Scenario Meshed Design Map
The NSCOGI Reference Scenario has three main characteristics that drive the need for
investments in Great Britain:
(i) There is very limited growth in offshore wind farm development from the 16GW
assumed to be connected by 2020 (TYNDP 2012) to 17.7GW in 2030. It should however be
noted that the Reference Scenario used in the study was derived from mid-2011 data,
based on policies that were sufficiently advanced at the time to be incorporated. Policy
developments since then have not been taken into account, nor have potential future
reductions in the costs of offshore wind. In this Scenario, the study therefore only
assesses the most economic and efficient way of connecting the additional 1.7GW of
offshore wind, the majority if which is situated along the east coasts of England and
Scotland and in the Irish Sea. The connection of these wind farms is by new offshore AC
cables and HVDC circuits to multiple onshore connection sites.
(ii) RES targets are achieved through a significant increase in onshore wind generation
(from 9.1GW in 2020 to 17.7GW by 2030). The majority of this onshore generation is
expected to be sited in Scotland, significantly increasing north to south flows.
(iii) The pricing assumptions place gas fuelled generation, which forms much of the
Great Britain generation base in the scenario (55GW), low in the economic merit order. As
a result, Great Britain is seen to have a shortfall of low cost (in merit) generation. This
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