The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

4 Market Based Potential for Further Interconnection
4.1 System Evolution between 2020 and 2030
As part of the process described in Chapters 2and 3, an assessment was made of the
potential for further interconnection capacities between the 10 countries of NSCOGI over
and above the planned links in the TYNDP. The assessment uses market modelling tools
to evaluate the changes up to 2030 in the fuel mix of energy production, import and
export positions, CO emissions and production costs. The market models calculate the
2
energy produced by every generator during the study year. By amalgamating the
generation output by fuel-type, a view of the total amount of generation produced by each
fuel can be obtained for each market node and for the NSCOGI region as a whole.
Figure 4-1 Comparison of fuel mix in energy (in TWh) in the NSCOGI perimeter in the years 2020 (Scenario
EU2020) and 2030 (NSCOGI Reference scenario) calculated with grid 2020 capacities
In Figure 4-1, the fuel mix in terms of TWh electricity production of the EU2020 and the
NSCOGI Reference scenario are compared. The graph shows that, although coal/lignite
fired capacity decreases between 2020 and 2030 and gas fired capacity significantly
increases, the electricity production behaves inversely: production from coal and lignite
fired capacities increases by almost 190%, while production from gas fired capacity
decreases. This can be explained by the different assumptions made for fuel and CO
2
prices in the EU2020 and NSCOGI Reference scenarios. These differences lead to a shift in
the merit order of the generating capacities. In scenario EU2020 new CCGT gas fired
capacity is dispatched before coal fired capacity, as required by the EC’s assumptions on
2020. The NSCOGI Reference Scenario is a coal before gas scenario, resulting in maximum
utilisation of coal and lignite capacity. This would suggest that scenario development for
future work should consider a gas before coal pricing order to match the ambitions of
countries building gas capacity before coal capacity more closely.
Figure 4-2 details the 2030 fuel mix as a percentage of total demand for each market
node. A combined fuel mix greater than 100% for a market node means that generation
exceeds demand at that node and electricity is therefore exported to a neighbouring
country. Similarly, a combined fuel mix of less than 100% means that the market node
Page 28 of 142