The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

In the use of data it is important to recognise that:
1. The level of renewable generation, in particular, the level and location of
offshore renewables in projections, is likely to be the parameter with the most
significant impact in determining which offshore grid configuration design best
serves the region’s socio-economic interests. Other parameters that change
that impact on market flows are also likely to influence future grid
development; of these, the assumed level of CO2 costs is probably one of the
most important variables.
2. The North Seas Countries are committed to addressing climate change and
reducing emissions in the longer term. Although there are EU-wide RES targets
up to 2020, there are none beyond this point. There is therefore significant
uncertainty over the level of renewable generation in the North Seas Countries
in the period 2020 – 2030, as there are various possible pathways to
decarbonisation.
The reviewed and updated data was further developed for use in market modelling tools
by the TSOs (see Appendix A 1).
As the updated Reference and Decarbonisation scenarios did not differ significantly with
respect to the overall RES share for the region, it was decided to proceed with just one
scenario for the year 2030 which is referred to as the NSCOGI dataset of summer 2011 or
“Reference Scenario” in this text. Key figures for this scenario are described in more detail
in Appendix A 2.
The evolution of the system in terms of installed generating capacities between the year
2020 and 2030 is shown in Figure 3-2. The year 2020 is based on scenario EU2020 from
the TYNDP 2012. This scenario, in which the 2020 targets are met, is based on the
National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) of the European Member states. This
scenario is compared here with the situation in 2030, represented by the NSCOGI
Reference Scenario.
Figure 3-2 Comparison of installed capacities (in GW) in the NSCOGI perimeter in the years 2020 (Scenario
EU2020) and 2030 (NSCOGI Reference Scenario)
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