The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

Therefore, if future targets are likely to involve increased volumes of offshore RES that
those assumed in the Reference scenario, there may be significant benefit in adopted a
more integrated, meshed approach to grid design. This result was also found in [12]
These two and also other studies on future RES integration [15] -[18], [21]; [23] usually
assume an absence of regulatory barriers, which is not yet the case in reality. The findings
of the RES+ sensitivity reinforce the requirement for NSCOGI to further cooperate on
pathways to mitigating existing barriers.
6.1.6 Future Work Stream
It is proposed to continue work in NSCOGI with special focus on assessing scenarios
produced with a common foundation, analysing additional sensitivities and considering
the barriers as far as possible, on real life characteristics.
6.1.6.1 Development of common scenarios
As described in Chapter 1.1.7 ENTSO-E will continue to work on the scenario-based
approach where four scenarios are being developed in the framework of the next
TYNDP(s) to come. These scenarios are discussed with external stakeholders.. The NSCOGI
forum could serve as a valuable forum for consultation already at an early stage and
during developing the scenarios. It would increase the value of the TYNDP even further, if
the scenarios are understood and as far as possible agreed by all NSCOGI stakeholders as
an appropriate foundation also to be considered for future NSCOGI work.
This scenario based approach differs from the collection of best views used in this study
and takes the uncertainty around a common Regional / European target for 2030 into
account.
6.1.6.2 Possible sensitivities on a scenario
To investigate the robustness of a scenario, single parameters can be changed. For this
study, the amount of offshore RES has been significantly increased, as described in 6.1.5.
Other possible sensitivities, which could be worth investigating on a next scenario are
described below, - in case they are not already being taken into account as part of the four
scenarios to be developed (see 6.1.6.1).
CO 2 prices
CO prices have substantial influence on the eventual fuel mix. A sensitivity analysis on
2
the assumed CO prices may address the mismatches between the merit order (fuel mix)
2
presently observed in some countries with those of the Reference Scenario. A ‘gas before
coal’ merit order would require substantially higher CO prices. A sensitivity analysis on
2
CO prices may also address the mismatch between CO prices in the Reference Scenario
2 2
and those observed over the past period on the ETS-market. In order to substantially
reduce the workload of this ‘Merit Order Change’ sensitivity analysis, some limitation in
scope of the analysis is required.
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