The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

6 Conclusions and Outlook
6.1 Discussion on Results
NSOCGI has proved to be an important platform for collaboration between the European
Commission, Governments, NRAs and TSOs. It has considered two different regional
design approaches concerning the offshore part of the infrastructure necessary to meet
the 10 Governments’ energy mix ambitions, including the accommodation of expected
volumes of offshore wind energy to achieve targets in 2020 and beyond
The North Seas’ Countries are committed to addressing climate change and reducing
emissions in the longer term [8]. Although there are EU-wide renewable targets to 2020,
there are none beyond this point. There is therefore considerable uncertainty over the
generation mix, including the predicted level of renewable generation in the North Seas,
for the period 2020 to 2030, because each country might follow individual 2030 targets
or has an individual approach to deliver the EU’s 2050 decarbonisation objective with
individual assumptions concerning the neighbours’ decisions [8].
In summer 2011 the Governments provided their individual generation and load forecasts
for 2030. The TSOs applied their knowledge and expertise to develop plausible grid
designs to accommodate the expected generation mixes at optimal grid investment cost.
6.1.1 Initial findings
Based on the NSCOGI 2011 forecasts of generation and demand in 2030, the analysis
carried out in this study showed that the meshed solution is slightly better (by
77 M€ p.a.) than the radial one, in terms of variable electricity production costs,
investment cost into grid assets and related variable operation and maintenance costs.
However, the significance of this difference in the context of a 30 bn€ investment in the
grid has to be tested with further analysis using other scenarios and executing some risk
assessment.
The volume of new offshore RES between 2020 (the base year) and the studied year (2030)
in the Reference scenario was relatively small, with only 13 GW predicted for new
connections across the region. This is in contrast to the expected developments for other
fuel types e.g. gas capacity increasing by 63GW during the same period. The findings of
this study should therefore be considered against this background.
6.1.2 The scenario is fundamental to results
The development of the Reference scenario was the result of a joint exercise by
Governments and TSOs in the summer of 2011. The Reference scenario was built up from
Governments’ best views taking into account national policies at that time and planning
considerations. Governments are well placed to make such forecasts given their role in
supporting specific technologies and making planning decisions.
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