The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

Figure 0-3 Comparison of installed capacities (in GW) in the NSCOGI perimeter in the years 2020 (Scenario
EU2020) and 2030 (NSCOGI Reference scenario)
Figure 0-4 Comparison of energy fuel mix (in TWh) in the NSCOGI perimeter in the years 2020 (Scenario
EU2020) and 2030 (NSCOGI Reference scenario)
Although gas capacity increases by 70%, and coal capacity decreases by 8%, the energy
production behaves inversely with an 18% decrease for gas, but 190% increase for coal
due to the impact of the assumed merit order. By implication, this will play a major role in
the countries’ import / export positions and related infrastructure requirements.
Clearly running this amount of coal will also have an impact on CO emissions, which
2
according to the results stay constant between 2020 and 2030. It therefore follows that,
without large-scale CCS integration, countries with significant coal generation (e.g.
Germany, Great Britain and the Netherlands) are and stay also the largest emitters of CO ,
2
although some movement between them can be observed between 2020 and 2030.
In an energy only market and under this scenario it is doubtful whether gas-fired plant
would have sufficient utilisation hours to be profitable with the assumed CO2 price and
fuel prices of gas and coal.
Thus, the resulting infrastructure for the Reference scenario should be re-evaluated, if the
underlying production mix assumptions are changed in the light of the results presented
in this study.
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