The North Seas Countries' Offshore Grid Initiative - Initial ... - Benelux

some countries requiring self-sufficiency, while others rely to some extent on the regional
market to meet their adequacy requirements. For hydro-dominated systems, energy
margin indicators are generally required in addition to capacity-based reserve margins.
Because of the diverse requirements within the region, judgement on the adequacy of the
Reference Scenario was made based on a reserve margin with the help of TSOs’ expertise
from all countries. This confirmed that regional adequacy was met.
Figure 3-5: Installed capacity as a ratio of the peak demand by country and for the total NSCOGI Region
(2030). The horizontal blue line represents the typical target reserve margin of 1.15 to 1.25.
NB: These results are based on a hypothesis on future capacities by fuel type, validated by
administrations in summer 2011. They do not take account of any changes in energy mix
that may have been decided since that time.
The result of the assessment is presented in Figure 3-5. It shows that reserve margin in
the region varies between 0.95 and 1.55 with margins smaller than 1.1 occurring in
Denmark and Ireland. For the entire Region a margin of 1.32 is reached.
Based on these results it can be concluded that the Reference Scenario includes enough
resources in the Region to guarantee security of supply from a generation adequacy point
of view. Some countries with low reserve margins may have to rely on resources outside
their national borders or on their own wind or solar resources to guarantee security of
energy supply. However sufficient cross border capacity is available to facilitate this.
The market simulations made later on in the process, in which generation adequacy was
assessed in much more detail, have confirmed these preliminary adequacy assessment
results.
Page 22 of 142