Williams-Climate-change-refugia-for-terrestrial-biodiversity_0

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Figure 29: A detailed view of the protected areas in Australia’s national reserve system, and how they relate to the projected refugia areas in 2085 for north-eastern .................................... 47 Figure 30: Study areas for assessing refugial potential using compositional turnover modelling. ..................................................................................................................................................... 53 Figure 31: Scaling the difference between modelled and remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration using the Budyko framework ........................................................................ 55 Figure 32: Workflow for the terrain downscaling of climate, with topographic and surface- /ground water corrections. ........................................................................................................... 56 Figure 33: The two types of predicted compositional similarities used to calculate refugial potential for a given grid-cell i under a given climate scenario .................................................... 61 Figure 34: Diagrammatic representation of the shifting relationship between geographical space and biotically scaled environmental space under climate change .............................................. 62 Figure 35: Continental analyses of refugial potential (based on compositional-turnover modelling). ................................................................................................................................... 64 Figure 36: Refugial potential based on compositional-turnover modelling of the Order Proteales (banksias, grevilleas etc.), assuming three different dispersal capacities. .................................. 65 Figure 37: Refugial potential based on compositional-turnover modelling of the Order Proteales (banksias, grevilleas etc.), for four climate scenarios (to 2085). ................................................. 66 Figure 38: Refugial potential based on compositional-turnover modelling of four different biological groups: Order Proteales, Order Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians ............................ 66 Figure 39: Refugial potential averaged across Proteales, Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians, and four climate scenarios (to 2085) .................................................................................................. 67 Figure 40: Enlarged portion (Kimberley region) of map presented in Figure 39, depicting refugial potential averaged across Proteales, Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians, and four climate scenarios (to 2085) ...................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 41: Enlarged portion (Central Ranges) of map presented in Figure 39, depicting refugial potential averaged across Proteales, Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians, and four climate scenarios (to 2085) ...................................................................................................................... 68 Figure 42: Enlarged portion (Wet Tropics) of map presented in Figure 39, depicting refugial potential averaged across Proteales, Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians, and four climate scenarios (to 2085) ...................................................................................................................... 69 Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Sydney Basin) of map presented in Figure 39, depicting refugial potential averaged across Proteales, Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians, and four climate scenarios (to 2085) ...................................................................................................................... 70 Figure 44: Enlarged portion (Tasmania) of map presented in Figure 39, depicting refugial potential averaged across Proteales, Fabales, reptiles, and amphibians, and four climate scenarios (to 2085) ...................................................................................................................... 71 Figure 45: Inclusion of areas of highest refugial potential (based on the averaged results for Proteales, Fabales, reptiles and amphibians) within the National Reserve System. .................. 72 Figure 46: Inclusion of areas of highest refugial potential (based on the averaged results for Proteales, Fabales, reptiles and amphibians) detail for the ‘Top End’. ....................................... 72 Figure 47: Refugial potential in NSW based on compositional-turnover modelling of vascular plants at 100 m grid resolution .................................................................................................... 73 Figure 48: Refugial potential in the Tingle Mosaic (south-west Western Australia) based on compositional-turnover modelling of vascular plants at 30 m grid resolution, for four climate scenarios (to 2085) ...................................................................................................................... 74 Figure 49: Distribution of rainforest types, and names of regions used in this study. ................. 79 Figure 50: Stability of climatic niche of rainforest since 120 kya ................................................. 83 Figure 51: Stability of the climatic niche of rainforest over the past 120kya allowing refugia to shift up to 10 myr -1 ....................................................................................................................... 84 Figure 52: Climate and habitat suitability over 120 kyr at two locations ...................................... 86 Figure 53: Lineage distribution models for the six lineages of Saproscincus rosei ..................... 87 Figure 54: Rainforest specialist species and lineage endemism ................................................ 89 viii Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
Figure 55: Areas of endemism in the Iron Range and Coen areas of Cape York Peninsula. .... 90 Figure 56: Areas of endemism in the Wet Tropics and mid-east Queensland ........................... 91 Figure 57: Glass House/Conondale, Border Ranges and Northern Tableland areas of endemism. ................................................................................................................................... 92 Figure 58: The Australian bioregions (IBRA) selected for the greenspot analysis of monsoonal Australia. ..................................................................................................................................... 98 Figure 59: This map shows the results of the greenspot analysis for monsoonal Australia ....... 99 Figure 60: Long-term average monthly rainfall for a typical location in monsoonal Australia (Katherine Station) .................................................................................................................... 101 Figure 61: Zonation conservation prioritisation analysis of the AWT bioregion ........................ 106 Figure 62: Accounting for uncertainty in the future projected species distributions.................. 106 Figure 63: The refugia areas resulting from the species distribution modelling analyses ........ 110 Figure 64: Comparison of techniques for a common region, the AWT bioregion of north-east Queensland ............................................................................................................................... 111 Figure A2-1. Change in temperature ( o C) for a 30-year average centred on 2085 relative to a 1990 baseline ............................................................................................................................ 134 Figure A2-2. The novelty of future climate for 2085 as estimated by the number of standard deviations from the mean associated with a 30-year baseline centred on 1990 ...................... 135 Figure A2-3. Proportionate change in rainfall for a 30-year average centred on 2085 relative to a 1990 baseline ............................................................................................................................ 136 Figure A2-4. The novelty of future climate for 2085 as estimated by the number of standard deviations from the mean associated with a 30-year baseline centred on 1990 ...................... 137 Figure A2-5. The distance an organism would have to travel by 2085 to stay within two standard deviations of the current temperature mean ............................................................................. 138 Figure A2-6. The distance an organism would have to travel by 2085 to stay within one standard deviation of the current precipitation mean ............................................................................... 139 Figure A2-7. The areas for which there is no analogous temperature predicted for 2085 ....... 140 Figure A7-1. Case study areas for modelling species compositional turnover. ........................ 172 Figure A7-2. Continental Australia fitted model for mammals .................................................. 180 Figure A7-3. Continental Australia fitted model for birds .......................................................... 181 Figure A7-4. Continental Australia fitted model for reptiles ...................................................... 182 Figure A7-5. Continental Australia fitted model for amphibians................................................ 183 Figure A7-6. Continental Australia fitted model for Apocrita (bees and wasps) ....................... 184 Figure A7-7. Continental Australia fitted model for Araneae (spiders) ..................................... 185 Figure A7-8. Continental Australia fitted model for Coleaoptera (beetles) ............................... 186 Figure A7-9. Continental Australia fitted model for Fungi ......................................................... 187 Figure A7-10. Continental Australia fitted model for Gymnosperms (cycads and pines) ......... 188 Figure A7-11. Continental Australia fitted model for Asparagales (lilies and related plants) .... 189 Figure A7-12. Continental Australia fitted model for Poales (grasses and sedges) ................. 190 Figure A7-13. Continental Australia fitted model for Asterales daisies ..................................... 191 Figure A7-14. Continental Australia fitted model for Fabales (legumes and related nitrogen fixing plants) ........................................................................................................................................ 192 Figure A7-15. Continental Australia fitted model for Myrtales .................................................. 193 Figure A7-16. Continental Australia fitted model for Proteales (proteas) ................................. 194 Figure A7-17. Eastern Australia 3-second fitted model for vascular plants across NSW ......... 197 Figure A7-18. Eastern Australia 3-second fitted model for vascular plants for southeast NSW .................................................................................................................................................. 198 Figure A7-19. Tingle Mosaic survey 1-second fitted model for vascular plants ....................... 201 Figure A7-20. Tingle Mosaic survey 1-second fitted model for vascular plants with local soil variable ...................................................................................................................................... 202 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity ix
Page 1: Climate change refugia for terrestr
Page 4 and 5: Published by the National Climate C
Page 6 and 7: 3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
Page 8 and 9: APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
Page 12 and 13: x Climate change refugia for terres
Page 14 and 15: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
Page 16 and 17: we will be in a better position to
Page 18 and 19: 1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
Page 20 and 21: efugia meeting this latter criterio
Page 22 and 23: 2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
Page 24 and 25: highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
Page 26 and 27: 3.3.4 Species data The study genera
Page 28 and 29: AUC score is negatively correlated
Page 30 and 31: Finally, we assess climate change t
Page 32 and 33: Territory, the Great Australian Big
Page 34 and 35: Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
Page 36 and 37: Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
Page 38 and 39: 3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
Page 40 and 41: the continent, the required movemen
Page 42 and 43: Figure 16: An example of a species
Page 44 and 45: Figure 18: Species richness for eac
Page 46 and 47: Figure 20: The number of immigrants
Page 48 and 49: Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
Page 50 and 51: Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
Page 52 and 53: Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
Page 54 and 55: 3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
Page 56 and 57: including the Nullarbor Regional Re
Page 58 and 59: Table 2: The different classes of r
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most of the continent by 2085 that
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3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
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individual species) will respond to
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4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
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Table 1: Biological groups compiled
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Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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expected to be considerably less ex
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is, the refugial analysis itself, f
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Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
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time periods to a distance calculat
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proportion of this suitability foun
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(a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
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Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
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Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
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Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
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Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
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5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
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(back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
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Within each sub-region, potential e
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Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
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drought micro-refuges, then targete
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The iterative recalculation of all
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Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
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7.6 Gaps and future research The co
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Figure 66: The refugia areas result
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8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
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9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
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REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
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Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
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Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
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R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
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Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
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APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
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Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
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Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
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Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
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Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
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APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
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APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
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Figure A4-2. The species richness s
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Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
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INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
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RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
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Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
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Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
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RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
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Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
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REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
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APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
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APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
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Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
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to support in house applications an
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Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
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Variable Group Predictor variable a
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a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
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Page 206 and 207:
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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