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Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrants’ and ‘Emigrants’ for each of the taxonomic
classes. For each group, the left model shows the number of species that are
projected to have suitable climate space in 2085 (median) where they were
absent in 1990. On the right are the ‘Emigrants’ – the number of species
projected to have lost suitable climate space in 2085 (median), where they were
present in 1990.
Across most of Australia, the number of species projected to gain climate space into a
previously unsuitable area is less than the number of species that already occur there
(Figure 22). This is true for almost all areas except for pockets of South Australia,
Victoria, NSW and Tasmania, shown in blue. Areas of inland NSW are also projected
to have a greater number of immigrants than the number of species already recorded
to occur there for amphibians and reptiles. This is the result of relatively low original
species diversity coupled with the general southward and eastward trend of projected
species movements. The number of emigrants proportional to the number of species
originally occurring in the area show consistent patterns: fewer species are being
driven out in the south and east, and the number of emigrants is greater in central and
western Australia. In central and western Australia, we see almost no immigration and
almost total emigration. Thus, these areas are predicted to face massive vertebrate
diversity loss by 2085. For each taxonomic group, the number of emigrants is also
low in northernmost Northern Territory. For birds and mammals, the areas of fewest
emigrants proportional to the original species richness is concentrated in the southeast.
For amphibians and reptiles the lowest areas are concentrated in central and
north Queensland, and the Brigalow Belt, Darling Riverine Plains and Mulga Lands
areas.
36 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity