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Finally, we assess climate change through time as well as through space. If small range-shifts can ameliorate climate change, then species will persist in these areas (by moving) despite a changed climate in their original range. 3.4.2 Past: interglacial The paleological record of annual mean temperature between the current day and those of 7000, 24 000 and 120 000 years ago shows that temperature has fluctuated from a little over four degrees cooler, to just over two degrees warmer than current (Figure 2). In particular, many coastal areas had the greatest relative shift in annual mean temperature during the Last Glacial Maximum. During the Holocene Climate Optimum and Last Interglacial, many of the areas that differed least from current climate were found in the east of the continent. 18 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
Figure 2: The absolute change (left) and number of standard deviations away (right) from annual temperature in 1990 (°C), shown for the retrodicted temperature of 7000, 24 000 and 120 000 years ago. For the absolute change, blue colours indicate a cooler temperature than current, warm colours indicate a warmer temperature than current. Precipitation did not shift as uniformly over the three past time points as did temperature (Figure 3). The north of the Northern Territory was consistently wetter for all three time periods, but this was most pronounced during the Last Glacial Maximum when it was over 50% greater than today. The upland regions of the Einasleigh Uplands and Wet Tropics of north-east Queensland consistently received more rainfall than present, although other parts of the Wet Tropics were consistently drier. Central Australia was largely drier than current across the Holocene Climate Optimum and the Last Glacial Maximum, but was wetter in some areas during the Last Interglacial. The areas that differed most from current variation include the northernmost Northern Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 19
Page 1: Climate change refugia for terrestr
Page 4 and 5: Published by the National Climate C
Page 6 and 7: 3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
Page 8 and 9: APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
Page 10 and 11: Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
Page 12 and 13: x Climate change refugia for terres
Page 14 and 15: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
Page 16 and 17: we will be in a better position to
Page 18 and 19: 1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
Page 20 and 21: efugia meeting this latter criterio
Page 22 and 23: 2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
Page 24 and 25: highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
Page 26 and 27: 3.3.4 Species data The study genera
Page 28 and 29: AUC score is negatively correlated
Page 32 and 33: Territory, the Great Australian Big
Page 34 and 35: Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
Page 36 and 37: Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
Page 38 and 39: 3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
Page 40 and 41: the continent, the required movemen
Page 42 and 43: Figure 16: An example of a species
Page 44 and 45: Figure 18: Species richness for eac
Page 46 and 47: Figure 20: The number of immigrants
Page 48 and 49: Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
Page 50 and 51: Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
Page 52 and 53: Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
Page 54 and 55: 3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
Page 56 and 57: including the Nullarbor Regional Re
Page 58 and 59: Table 2: The different classes of r
Page 60 and 61: most of the continent by 2085 that
Page 62 and 63: 3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
Page 64 and 65: individual species) will respond to
Page 66 and 67: 4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
Page 68 and 69: Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
Page 70 and 71: Table 1: Biological groups compiled
Page 72 and 73: Invoking space-for-time substitutio
Page 74 and 75: expected to be considerably less ex
Page 76 and 77: is, the refugial analysis itself, f
Page 78 and 79: Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
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time periods to a distance calculat
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proportion of this suitability foun
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(a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
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Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
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Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
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Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
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Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
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5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
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(back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
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Within each sub-region, potential e
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Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
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drought micro-refuges, then targete
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The iterative recalculation of all
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Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
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7.6 Gaps and future research The co
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Figure 66: The refugia areas result
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8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
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9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
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REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
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Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
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Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
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R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
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Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
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APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
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Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
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Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
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Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
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Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
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APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
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APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
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Figure A4-2. The species richness s
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Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
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INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
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RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
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Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
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Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
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RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
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Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
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REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
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APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
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APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
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Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
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to support in house applications an
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Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
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Variable Group Predictor variable a
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a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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