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Territory, the Great Australian Bight and western Tasmania, and this was most pronounced during the Last Glacial Maximum. Importantly, and this is a theme that recurs with precipitation, the relative measure consistently suggests very low overall shifts in precipitation relative to the inter-annual variation. That is, much of the Australian continent experiences very high inter-annual variation in rainfall, and against this backdrop, paleological climate change has not shifted annual precipitation levels greatly. Figure 3: The proportional change in (left) and number of standard deviations away from (right) annual precipitation (mm) in 1990, shown for the retrodicted annual mean precipitation of 7000, 24 000 and 120 000 years ago. For the relative change, blue colours indicate higher precipitation than current, warm colours indicate less precipitation than current. 20 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
The binary models showing the 10 th percentile of temperature change from current highlight the areas that have changed the least (Figure 4). The southern coast and the south-west of the continent consistently show the least change for both the Holocene Climate Optimum and the Last Glacial Maximum. The area that shifts the least from current variation in temperature was found in the north-west Northern Territory, from the Victoria Bonaparte down to the Tanami Desert. Figure 4: The 10 th percentile of least paleological change for annual mean temperature. The areas of least change in paleological precipitation are largely concentrated around the coast, and this is most pronounced during the Last Glacial Maximum (Figure 5). Eastern Australia contains the areas of least change in precipitation for each of the three time periods, but the exact areas within eastern Australia shift. Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 21
Page 1: Climate change refugia for terrestr
Page 4 and 5: Published by the National Climate C
Page 6 and 7: 3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
Page 8 and 9: APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
Page 10 and 11: Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
Page 12 and 13: x Climate change refugia for terres
Page 14 and 15: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
Page 16 and 17: we will be in a better position to
Page 18 and 19: 1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
Page 20 and 21: efugia meeting this latter criterio
Page 22 and 23: 2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
Page 24 and 25: highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
Page 26 and 27: 3.3.4 Species data The study genera
Page 28 and 29: AUC score is negatively correlated
Page 30 and 31: Finally, we assess climate change t
Page 34 and 35: Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
Page 36 and 37: Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
Page 38 and 39: 3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
Page 40 and 41: the continent, the required movemen
Page 42 and 43: Figure 16: An example of a species
Page 44 and 45: Figure 18: Species richness for eac
Page 46 and 47: Figure 20: The number of immigrants
Page 48 and 49: Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
Page 50 and 51: Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
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Page 58 and 59: Table 2: The different classes of r
Page 60 and 61: most of the continent by 2085 that
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Page 64 and 65: individual species) will respond to
Page 66 and 67: 4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Page 70 and 71: Table 1: Biological groups compiled
Page 72 and 73: Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
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time periods to a distance calculat
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proportion of this suitability foun
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(a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
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Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
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Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
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Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
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Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
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5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
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(back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
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Within each sub-region, potential e
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Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
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drought micro-refuges, then targete
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The iterative recalculation of all
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Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
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7.6 Gaps and future research The co
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Figure 66: The refugia areas result
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8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
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9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
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REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
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Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
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Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
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R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
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Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
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APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
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Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
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Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
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Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
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Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
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APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
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APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
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Figure A4-2. The species richness s
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Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
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INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
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RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
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Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
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Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
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RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
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Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
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REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
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APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
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APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
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Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
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to support in house applications an
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Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
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Variable Group Predictor variable a
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a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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