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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT Colubridae 4 Taudactylus acutirostris TAUACUT FROG Myobatrachidae 6 Taudactylus rheophilus TAURHEO FROG Myobatrachidae 6 Scenopoeetes dentirostris TBBB BIRD Ptilonorhynchidae 6 Techmarscincus jigurru TECJIGU REPT Scincidae 6 Thylogale stigmatica THYSTIG MAMM Macropodidae 5 Lopholaimus antarcticus TPIG BIRD Columbidae 5 Trichosurus vulpecula j. TRIJOHN MAMM Phalangeridae 5 Tropidechis carinatus TROCARI REPT Elapidae 5 Tropidonophis mairii TROMAIR REPT Colubridae 3 Uromys caudimaculatus UROCAUD MAMM Muridae 5 Uromys hadrourus UROHADR MAMM Muridae 6 Varanus scalaris VARSCAL REPT Varanidae 4 Varanus varius VARVARI REPT Varanidae 4 Vermicella annulata VERANNU REPT Elapidae 3 Ptiloris victoriae VRIF BIRD Paradisaeidae 5 Lalage leucomela VT BIRD Campephagidae 3 Poecilodryas superciliosa WBR BIRD Petroicidae 4 Sericornis frontalis WBSW BIRD Acanthizidae 4 Artamus leucorynchus WBWS BIRD Artamidae 3 Carternornis leucotis WEMON BIRD Monarchidae 5 Columba leucomela WHPIG BIRD Columbidae 5 Ptilinopus magnificus WOMP BIRD Columbidae 5 Aerodramus terraereginae WRSW BIRD Apodidae 5 Hirundapus caudacutus WTNT BIRD Apodidae 3 Cormobates leucophaea WTTC BIRD Climacteridae 5 Machaerirhynchus flaviventer YBBB BIRD Monarchidae 5 Oriolus flavocinctus YO BIRD Oriolidae 4 Meliphaga notata YSHE BIRD Meliphagidae 5 Sericornis citreogularis YTSW BIRD Acanthizidae 5 214 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
APPENDIX 10. CONSERVATION PLANNING VARIABILITY ACROSS GCMS Zonation conservation prioritization analysis of Australia’s Wet Tropics bioregion based on 191 terrestrial vertebrates projected species distribution models for 2085 using 18 GCMs. Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 215
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Climate change refugia for terrestr
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Published by the National Climate C
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3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
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APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
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Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
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x Climate change refugia for terres
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
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we will be in a better position to
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1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
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efugia meeting this latter criterio
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2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
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highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
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3.3.4 Species data The study genera
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AUC score is negatively correlated
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Finally, we assess climate change t
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Territory, the Great Australian Big
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Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
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Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
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3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
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the continent, the required movemen
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Figure 16: An example of a species
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Figure 18: Species richness for eac
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Figure 20: The number of immigrants
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Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
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Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
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Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
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3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
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including the Nullarbor Regional Re
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Table 2: The different classes of r
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most of the continent by 2085 that
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3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
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individual species) will respond to
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4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
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Table 1: Biological groups compiled
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Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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expected to be considerably less ex
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is, the refugial analysis itself, f
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Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
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time periods to a distance calculat
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proportion of this suitability foun
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(a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
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Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
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Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
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Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
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Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
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5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
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(back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
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Within each sub-region, potential e
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Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
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drought micro-refuges, then targete
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The iterative recalculation of all
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Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
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7.6 Gaps and future research The co
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Figure 66: The refugia areas result
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8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
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9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
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REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
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Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
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Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
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R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
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Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
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APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
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Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
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Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
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Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
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Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
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APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
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APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
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Figure A4-2. The species richness s
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Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
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INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
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RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
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Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
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Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
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RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
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Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
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REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
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Page 178 and 179: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 180 and 181: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 182 and 183: Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
Page 184 and 185: APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
Page 186 and 187: Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
Page 188 and 189: to support in house applications an
Page 190 and 191: Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
Page 192 and 193: Variable Group Predictor variable a
Page 194 and 195: a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
Page 208 and 209: Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
Page 210 and 211: a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
Page 212 and 213: Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
Page 214 and 215: a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
Page 216 and 217: References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
Page 218 and 219: APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
Page 220 and 221: Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
Page 222 and 223: Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
Page 224 and 225: Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
Page 228: Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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