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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes D, Smith M (1998) Crop evapotranspiration - Guidelines for computing crop water requirements. In: FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper. pp Page, Rome, FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Austin MP, Pausas JG, Nicholls AO (1996) Patterns of tree species richness in relation to environment in southeastern New South Wales, Australia. Australian Journal of Ecology, 21, 154-164. Bureau of Rural Sciences (2000) Digital Atlas of Australian Soils, Canberra, Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Government. Claridge J, Williams KJ, Storey RJL (2000) Creation of the South-East Queensland depth index rescaled using CTI, Brisbane, Enhanced Resource Assessment 2000-05. A JVAP project QDN3A Technical Report. Queensland Department of Natural Resources. Clarke JM, Whetton PH, Hennessy KJ (2011) Providing Application-specific Climate Projections Datasets: CSIRO's Climate Futures Framework. In: MODSIM2011, 19th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. (eds Chan F, Marinova D, Anderssen R) pp Page, Perth, Western Australia, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. Crimp S, Kokic P, Mckeon G, Smith I, Syktus J, Timbal B, Whetton P (2012) A review of appropriate statistical downscaling approaches to apply as part of Phase 2 of the Consistent Climate Projections project. pp Page, Canberra, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. Csiro (2007) OZCLIM: Exploring climate change scenarios for Australia. pp Page, Melbourne, , CSIRO. Dsewpac (2012) Interim Biogeographic Regionalisation for Australia (IBRA), Version 7 (Bioregions and Subregions) pp Page, Canberra, Australia, Australian Government Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities Ferrier S, Manion G, Elith J, Richardson K (2007) Using generalized dissimilarity modelling to analyse and predict patterns of beta diversity in regional biodiversity assessment. Diversity and Distributions, 13, 252-264. Gallant J (2011) Building the national one second digital elevation model of Australia. In: Water Information Research and Development Alliance (WIRADA) Science Symposium 1–5 August 2011. pp Page, Melbourne, Australia, CSIRO Water for a Healthy Country. Gallant J, Austin J, Dowling T (2012) Metadata: Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), 3” resolution, derived from 1 second DEM-H. pp Page, Canberra, CSIRO Land and Water. Gordon H, O’farrell S, Collier M et al. (2010) The CSIRO Mk3.5 Climate Model, Melbourne, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO. Grass Development Team (2011) GRASS 6.4 Users Manual. Electronic document: http://grass.osgeo.org/grass64/manuals/html64_user/. pp Page, USA, Open Source Geospatial Foundation. Harwood T, Williams KJ, Ferrier S (2010) Generation of spatially downscaled climate change predictions for Australia. A report prepared for the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Canberra, Canberra, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship. Hasumi H, Emori S (eds) (2004) K-1 Coupled GCM (MIROC) Description, Tokyo, K-1 model developers - Center for Climate System Research (CCSR), University of Tokyo; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES); Frontier Research Center for Global Change (FRCGC). 204 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
Jackson ST, Betancourt JL, Booth RK, Gray ST (2009) Ecology and the ratchet of events: Climate variability, niche dimensions, and species distributions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 106, 19685-19692. Jacquier D (2011a) Metadata: ASRIS 0-1m Plant Available Water Capacity (250m raster). pp Page, Canberra, CSIRO Land and Water. Jacquier D (2011b) Metadata: ASRIS 0-30cm Bulk Density (250m raster). pp Page, Canberra, CSIRO LAnd and Water. Jacquier D (2011c) Metadata: ASRIS 0-30cm Clay Content (250m raster). pp Page, Canberra, CSIRO Land and Water. Laffan SW, Lubarsky E, Rosauer DF (2010) Biodiverse, a tool for the spatial analysis of biological and related diversity. Ecography, 33, 643-647. Logan V, Ferrier S, Manion G (2009) Using modelling of continuous gradients of community composition to assess vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change in New South Wales (Poster). In: 10th International Congress of Ecology (INTECOL) 2009 Conference. pp Page, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia, INTECOL. Manion G (2012).NET Generalised Dissimilarity Modeller (GDM) version 2.70, Armidale, NSW Department of Climate Change and Water. Mckenzie NJ, Jacquier DW, L.J. A, Cresswell HP (2000) Estimation of Soil Properties Using the Atlas of Australian Soils. In: CSIRO Land and Water Technical Report 11/00. pp Page, Canberra, CSIRO Land and Water. Ricketts JH, Page CM (2007) A web based version of OzClim for exploring climate change impacts and risks in the Australian region. In: Proceedings, MODSIM 2007 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation. (eds Oxley L, Kulasiri D) pp Page. Christchurch, New Zealand, Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand. Rosauer D, Ferrier S, Williams KJ, Manion G, Keogh S, Laffan SW (in review) Phylogenetic Generalised Dissimilarity Modelling: a new approach to analysing and predicting spatial turnover in the phylogenetic composition of communities. Ecography. Viscarra-Rossel RA, Chen C (2011) Digitally mapping the information content of visible-near infrared spectra of surficial Australian soils. Remote Sensing of Environment, 115, 1443-1455. Viscarra Rossel RA (2011) Fine-resolution multiscale mapping of clay minerals in Australian soils measured with near infrared spectra. Journal of Geophysical Research, 116, F04023. Wardell-Johnson G, Williams M (1996) A floristic survey of the Tingle Mosaic, southwestern Australia:applications in land use planning and management. Journal of the Royal Society of Western Australia, 79, 249-264. Williams KJ, Belbin L, Austin MP, Stein J, Ferrier S (2012) Which environmental variables should I use in my biodiversity model? International Journal of Geographic Information Sciences, 26, 2009-2047. Wilson JP, Gallant JC (2000) Secondary topographic attributes. In: Terrain Analysis: Principles and Applications. (eds Wilson JP, Gallant JC) pp Page. New York, John Wiley & Sons. Xu T, Hutchinson M (2011) ANUCLIM Version 6.1 User Guide, Canberra, The Australian National University, Fenner School of Environment and Society. Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 205
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Climate change refugia for terrestr
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Published by the National Climate C
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3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
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APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
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Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
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x Climate change refugia for terres
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
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we will be in a better position to
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1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
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efugia meeting this latter criterio
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2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
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highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
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3.3.4 Species data The study genera
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AUC score is negatively correlated
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Finally, we assess climate change t
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Territory, the Great Australian Big
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Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
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Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
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3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
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the continent, the required movemen
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Figure 16: An example of a species
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Figure 18: Species richness for eac
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Figure 20: The number of immigrants
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Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
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Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
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Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
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3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
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including the Nullarbor Regional Re
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Table 2: The different classes of r
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most of the continent by 2085 that
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3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
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individual species) will respond to
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4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
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Table 1: Biological groups compiled
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Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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expected to be considerably less ex
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is, the refugial analysis itself, f
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Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
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time periods to a distance calculat
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proportion of this suitability foun
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(a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
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Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
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Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
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Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
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Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
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5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
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(back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
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Within each sub-region, potential e
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Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
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drought micro-refuges, then targete
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The iterative recalculation of all
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Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
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7.6 Gaps and future research The co
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Figure 66: The refugia areas result
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8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
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9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
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REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
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Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
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Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
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R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
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Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
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APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
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Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
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Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
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Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
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Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
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APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
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APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
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Figure A4-2. The species richness s
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Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
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INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
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RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
Page 166 and 167: Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
Page 168 and 169: Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
Page 170 and 171: RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
Page 172 and 173: Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
Page 174 and 175: REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
Page 176 and 177: APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
Page 178 and 179: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 180 and 181: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 182 and 183: Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
Page 184 and 185: APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
Page 186 and 187: Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
Page 188 and 189: to support in house applications an
Page 190 and 191: Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
Page 192 and 193: Variable Group Predictor variable a
Page 194 and 195: a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
Page 208 and 209: Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
Page 210 and 211: a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
Page 212 and 213: Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
Page 214 and 215: a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
Page 218 and 219: APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
Page 220 and 221: Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
Page 222 and 223: Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
Page 224 and 225: Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
Page 226 and 227: Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
Page 228: Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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