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Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants and emigrants for each taxonomic group shown as a proportion of the number of species in each pixel as of 1990. Left: ‘Immigrants’ – the number of species projected to have suitable climate space in 2085 (median) where they were absent in 1990, shown as a proportion of the number of species occurring in 1990. Yellow–red colours indicate that the number of immigrants is less than the number of species that already occurs in that area, cool colours indicate that there are projected to be more immigrants than the number of species already occurring. Right: ‘Emigrants’ – the number of species that are projected to lose suitable climate space between 1990 and 2085 (median), shown as a proportion of the number of species occurring in 1990. If we consider a refugium as a place that species move to, or persist in, during changing climatic conditions (sensu Keppel et al. 2012), it is clear that refugial areas will be identified by having a high number of immigrants, a low number of emigrants, or both. To visualise these regions, we thus take the 90 th percentile of immigrants (the 10% of Australia receiving the most immigrants), and the 10th percentile of emigrants (the 10% of the continent losing the fewest species). The areas identified as the highest number of immigrants and lowest number of emigrants proportional to the original species richness (above and below the 90 th and 10 th percentiles respectively), are shown in Figure 23. The highest concentration of immigrants is projected to be in the south and south-east of the continent for most taxonomic classes, as well as in Tasmania and the most south-west corner of Western Australia. The areas with the fewest emigrants show a very similar distribution across the continent, largely being represented in the south and east for birds and mammals, in Central Arnhem Land and Queensland for amphibians, and much of the east coast for mammals and reptiles. 38 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
Figure 25: The areas with the highest 10 th percentile of immigrants and lowest 10th percentile of emigrants, highlighting the areas with the biotic refugial potential. Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 39
Page 1: Climate change refugia for terrestr
Page 4 and 5: Published by the National Climate C
Page 6 and 7: 3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
Page 8 and 9: APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
Page 10 and 11: Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
Page 12 and 13: x Climate change refugia for terres
Page 14 and 15: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
Page 16 and 17: we will be in a better position to
Page 18 and 19: 1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
Page 20 and 21: efugia meeting this latter criterio
Page 22 and 23: 2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
Page 24 and 25: highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
Page 26 and 27: 3.3.4 Species data The study genera
Page 28 and 29: AUC score is negatively correlated
Page 30 and 31: Finally, we assess climate change t
Page 32 and 33: Territory, the Great Australian Big
Page 34 and 35: Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
Page 36 and 37: Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
Page 38 and 39: 3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
Page 40 and 41: the continent, the required movemen
Page 42 and 43: Figure 16: An example of a species
Page 44 and 45: Figure 18: Species richness for eac
Page 46 and 47: Figure 20: The number of immigrants
Page 48 and 49: Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
Page 52 and 53: Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
Page 54 and 55: 3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
Page 56 and 57: including the Nullarbor Regional Re
Page 58 and 59: Table 2: The different classes of r
Page 60 and 61: most of the continent by 2085 that
Page 62 and 63: 3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
Page 64 and 65: individual species) will respond to
Page 66 and 67: 4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
Page 68 and 69: Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
Page 70 and 71: Table 1: Biological groups compiled
Page 72 and 73: Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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Page 76 and 77: is, the refugial analysis itself, f
Page 78 and 79: Figure 40: Refugial potential based
Page 80 and 81: Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
Page 82 and 83: Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
Page 84 and 85: Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
Page 86 and 87: Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
Page 88 and 89: 4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
Page 90 and 91: 5.3 Research activities and methods
Page 92 and 93: time periods to a distance calculat
Page 94 and 95: proportion of this suitability foun
Page 96 and 97: (a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
Page 98 and 99: Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
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Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
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Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
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Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
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5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
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(back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
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Within each sub-region, potential e
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Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
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drought micro-refuges, then targete
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The iterative recalculation of all
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Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
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7.6 Gaps and future research The co
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Figure 66: The refugia areas result
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8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
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9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
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REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
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Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
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Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
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R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
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Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
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APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
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Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
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Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
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Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
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Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
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APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
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APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
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Figure A4-2. The species richness s
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Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
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INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
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RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
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Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
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Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
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RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
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Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
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REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
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APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Group Short name Name Units Source
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Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
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APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
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Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
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to support in house applications an
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Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
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Variable Group Predictor variable a
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a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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