Williams-Climate-change-refugia-for-terrestrial-biodiversity_0

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Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate Models used in analysis. Abb. Global Climate Model Group URL for further info cccma- Coupled Global Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma) http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-CCCMAcgcm31 Climate Model (CGCM3) CGCM3_1-T47-change.html ccsr- MIROC3.2 (hires) CCSR/NIES/FRCGC - Japan CCSR = Center for Climate System http://wwwmiroc32hi Research - University of Tokyo NIES = National Institute for pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/MIROC3.2_ Environmental Studies FRCGC = Frontier Research Center for Global Chance - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) (The University ofTokyo is a National University Corporation and NIES and JAMSTEC are Independent Administrative Institutions) hires.pdf ccsr- MIROC3.2 CCSR/NIES/FRCGC - Japan CCSR = Center for Climate System http://wwwmiroc32m (medres) Research - University of Tokyo NIES = National Institute for pcmdi.llnl.gov/ipcc/model_documentation/MIROC3.2_ ed Environmental Studies FRCGC = Frontier Research Center for Global Chance - Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC) (The University ofTokyo is a National University Corporation and NIES and JAMSTEC are Independent Administrative Institutions) hires.pdf cnrm-cm3 CNRM-CM3 Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques - Meteo http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-CNRM-CM3- France - France change.html csiro-mk30 CSIRO Mark 3.0 The CSIRO Mk3.5 Climate Model The Centre for Australian http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-CSIRO-MK3- Weather and Climate Research change.html gfdl-cm20 CM2.0 - AOGCM Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - NOAA http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-GFDL-CM2change.html gfdl-cm21 CM2.1 - AOGCM Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory - NOAA http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-GFDL-CM2_1change.htmlgiss- GISS ModelE-H and Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) - NASA - USA http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-NASA-GISS-EHmodeleh GISS ModelE-R (which differ only in ocean change.html 130 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
giss- component) GISS ModelE-H and Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) - NASA - USA http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-NASA-GISS-ERmodeler GISS ModelE-R (which differ only in ocean component) change.htmliap- FGOALS1.0_g LASG - Institute of Atmospheric Physics - Chinese Academy http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-LASG-FGOALSfgoals10g of Sciemces - P.O. Box 9804 - Beijing 100029 - P.R. China G1_0-change.html inm-cm30 INMCM3.0 Institute of Numerical Mathematics - Russian Academy of http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-INM-CM3- Science - Russia. change.html ipsl-cm4 IPSL-CM4 Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) - France http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-IPSL-CM4change.htmlmpi- ECHAM5/MPI-OM Max Planck Institute for Meteorology - Germany http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-MPIM-ECHAM5echam5change.htmlmri- MRI-CGCM2.3.2 Meteorological Research Institute - Japan Meteorological http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-MRIcgcm232a Agency - Japan CGCM2_3_2-change.html ncar- Community National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-NCAR-CCSM3ccsm30 Climate System Model - version 3.0 (CCSM3) change.html ncar-pcm1 Parallel Climate National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) - NSF (a http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-NCAR-PCM- Model (PCM) primary sponsor) - DOE (a primary sponsor) - NASA - and NOAA change.htmlukmo- HadCM3 Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - Met http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-UKMO-HADCM3hadcm3 Office - United Kingdom change.htmlukmo- Hadley Centre Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research - Met http://www.ipcc-data.org/ar4/model-UKMOhadgem1 Global Environmental Model - version 1 (HadGEM1) Office United Kingdom HADGEM1-change.html Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 131
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Climate change refugia for terrestr
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Published by the National Climate C
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3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
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APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
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Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
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x Climate change refugia for terres
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
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we will be in a better position to
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1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
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efugia meeting this latter criterio
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2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
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highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
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3.3.4 Species data The study genera
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AUC score is negatively correlated
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Finally, we assess climate change t
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Territory, the Great Australian Big
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Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
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Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
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3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
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the continent, the required movemen
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Figure 16: An example of a species
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Figure 18: Species richness for eac
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Figure 20: The number of immigrants
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Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
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Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
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Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
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3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
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including the Nullarbor Regional Re
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Table 2: The different classes of r
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most of the continent by 2085 that
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3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
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individual species) will respond to
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4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
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Table 1: Biological groups compiled
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Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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expected to be considerably less ex
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is, the refugial analysis itself, f
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Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
Page 92 and 93: time periods to a distance calculat
Page 94 and 95: proportion of this suitability foun
Page 96 and 97: (a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
Page 98 and 99: Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
Page 100 and 101: Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
Page 102 and 103: Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
Page 104 and 105: Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
Page 106 and 107: 5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
Page 108 and 109: (back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
Page 110 and 111: Within each sub-region, potential e
Page 112 and 113: Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
Page 114 and 115: drought micro-refuges, then targete
Page 116 and 117: The iterative recalculation of all
Page 118 and 119: Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
Page 120 and 121: 7.6 Gaps and future research The co
Page 122 and 123: Figure 66: The refugia areas result
Page 124 and 125: 8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
Page 126 and 127: 9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
Page 128 and 129: REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
Page 130 and 131: Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
Page 132 and 133: Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
Page 134 and 135: A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
Page 136 and 137: R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
Page 138 and 139: Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
Page 140 and 141: APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
Page 144 and 145: Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
Page 146 and 147: Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
Page 148 and 149: Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
Page 150 and 151: Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
Page 152 and 153: Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
Page 154 and 155: APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
Page 156 and 157: APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
Page 158 and 159: Figure A4-2. The species richness s
Page 160 and 161: Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
Page 162 and 163: INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
Page 164 and 165: RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
Page 166 and 167: Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
Page 168 and 169: Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
Page 170 and 171: RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
Page 172 and 173: Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
Page 174 and 175: REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
Page 176 and 177: APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
Page 178 and 179: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 180 and 181: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 182 and 183: Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
Page 184 and 185: APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
Page 186 and 187: Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
Page 188 and 189: to support in house applications an
Page 190 and 191: Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
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Variable Group Predictor variable a
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a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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