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Figure A2-70. Proportionate change in rainfall for a 30-year average centred on 2085 relative to a 1990 baseline. Rows represent the 10 th , 50 th and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs; columns represent four emission scenarios (RCPs – representative concentration pathways) increasing in greenhouse gas emissions from left to right. 136 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
Figure A2-71. The novelty of future climate for 2085 as estimated by the number of standard deviations from the mean (and variance) associated with a 30-year baseline centred on 1990. Rows represent the 10 th , 50 th and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs; columns represent four emission scenarios (RCPs – representative concentration pathways) increasing in greenhouse gas emissions from left to right. Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 137
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Climate change refugia for terrestr
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Published by the National Climate C
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3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
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APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
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Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
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x Climate change refugia for terres
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
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we will be in a better position to
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1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
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efugia meeting this latter criterio
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2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
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highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
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3.3.4 Species data The study genera
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AUC score is negatively correlated
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Finally, we assess climate change t
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Territory, the Great Australian Big
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Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
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Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
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3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
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the continent, the required movemen
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Figure 16: An example of a species
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Figure 18: Species richness for eac
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Figure 20: The number of immigrants
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Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
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Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
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Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
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3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
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including the Nullarbor Regional Re
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Table 2: The different classes of r
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most of the continent by 2085 that
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3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
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individual species) will respond to
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4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
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Table 1: Biological groups compiled
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Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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expected to be considerably less ex
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is, the refugial analysis itself, f
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Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
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Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
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Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
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4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
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5.3 Research activities and methods
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time periods to a distance calculat
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proportion of this suitability foun
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(a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
Page 98 and 99: Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
Page 100 and 101: Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
Page 102 and 103: Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
Page 104 and 105: Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
Page 106 and 107: 5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
Page 108 and 109: (back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
Page 110 and 111: Within each sub-region, potential e
Page 112 and 113: Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
Page 114 and 115: drought micro-refuges, then targete
Page 116 and 117: The iterative recalculation of all
Page 118 and 119: Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
Page 120 and 121: 7.6 Gaps and future research The co
Page 122 and 123: Figure 66: The refugia areas result
Page 124 and 125: 8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
Page 126 and 127: 9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
Page 128 and 129: REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
Page 130 and 131: Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
Page 132 and 133: Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
Page 134 and 135: A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wil
Page 136 and 137: R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
Page 138 and 139: Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
Page 140 and 141: APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
Page 142 and 143: Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
Page 144 and 145: Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
Page 146 and 147: Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
Page 150 and 151: Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
Page 152 and 153: Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
Page 154 and 155: APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
Page 156 and 157: APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
Page 158 and 159: Figure A4-2. The species richness s
Page 160 and 161: Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
Page 162 and 163: INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
Page 164 and 165: RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
Page 166 and 167: Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
Page 168 and 169: Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
Page 170 and 171: RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
Page 172 and 173: Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
Page 174 and 175: REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
Page 176 and 177: APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
Page 178 and 179: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 180 and 181: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 182 and 183: Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
Page 184 and 185: APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
Page 186 and 187: Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
Page 188 and 189: to support in house applications an
Page 190 and 191: Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
Page 192 and 193: Variable Group Predictor variable a
Page 194 and 195: a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
Page 196 and 197: a) c) Figure A7-80. Continental Aus
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a) c) Figure A7-82. Continental Aus
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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