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A. Utteridge, J. E. Watkins, R. Wilson, S. E. Williams, and C. D. Thomas. 2011. Global warming, elevational ranges and the vulnerability of tropical biota. Biological Conservation 144:548-557. Lea, D. W., P. A. Martin, D. K. Pak, and H. J. Spero. 2002. Reconstructing a 350 ky history of sea level using planktonic Mg/Ca and oxygen isotopic records from a Cocos Ridge core. Quaternary Science Reviews 21:283-293. Ling, C. X., J. Huang, and H. Zhang. 2003. AUC: a better measure than accuracy in comparing learning algorithms. Pages 329-341 in Y. Xiang and B. Chaib-draa, editors. Advances in Artificial Intelligence. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Heidelberg. Loarie, S. R., B. E. Carter, K. Hayhoe, S. McMahon, R. Moe, C. A. Knight, and D. D. Ackerly. 2008. Climate change and the future of California's endemic flora. PLoS One 3:e2502. Loarie, S. R., P. B. Duffy, H. Hamilton, G. P. Asner, C. B. Field, and D. D. Ackerly. 2009. The velocity of climate change. Nature 462:1052-1055. Logan, V., S. Ferrier, and G. Manion. 2009. Using modelling of continuous gradients of community composition to assess vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change in New South Wales (Poster). 10th International Congress of Ecology (INTECOL) 2009 Conference. INTECOL, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia. Lundquist, J. D., N. Pepin, and C. Rochford. 2008. Automated algorithm for mapping regions of cold-air pooling in complex terrain. Journal of Geophysical Research- Atmospheres 113:15. Mackey, B. G., S. Berry, S. Hugh, S. Ferrier, T. D. Harwood, and K. J. Williams. 2012. Ecosystem greenspots: identifying potential drought, fire, and climate-change micro-refuges. Ecological Applications 22:1852-1864. Mackey, B. G., H. A. Nix, and P. Hitchcock. 2001. The natural heritage significance of Cape York Peninsula. Environmental Protection Agency, Queensland State Government. Maclean, I. M. D., G. E. Austin, M. M. Rehfisch, J. Blew, O. Crowe, S. Delany, K. Devos, B. Deceuninck, K. Günther, K. Laursen, M. Van Roomen, and J. Wahl. 2008. Climate change causes rapid changes in the distribution and site abundance of birds in winter. Global Change Biology 14:2489-2500. Malcolm, J. R., C. R. Liu, R. P. Neilson, L. Hansen, and L. Hannah. 2006. Global warming and extinctions of endemic species from biodiversity hotspots. Conservation Biology 20:538-548. McKenzie, N. J., D. W. Jacquier, L. J. Ashton, and H. P. Cresswell. 2000. Estimation of Soil Properties Using the Atlas of Australian Soils, Canberra. Menkhorst, P. and F. Knight. 2001. A Field Guide to the Mammals of Australia. Oxford University Press, South Melbourne, Australia. Millennium Ecosystem Assessment. 2005. Ecosystems and human well-being: synthesis. Island Press, Washington, DC and Covelo, CA. Milne, G. A., A. J. Long, and S. E. Bassett. 2005. Modelling Holocene relative sea-level observations from the Caribbean and South America. Quaternary Science Reviews 24:1183-1202. Moilanen, A., L. Meller, J. Leppanen, F. M. Pouzols, A. Arponen, and H. Kujala. 2012. Zonation: Spatial conservation planning framework and software. Version 3.1 User manual: http://www/helsinki.fi/bioscience/consplan. Moritz, C., C. Hoskin, C. H. Graham, A. Hugall, A. Moussalli, A. Purvis, J. L. Gittleman, and T. Brooks. 2005. Historical biogeography, diversity and conservation of Australia’s tropical rainforest herpetofauna. Pages 243-264 in A. Purvis, J. L. Gittleman, and T. Brooks, editors. Phylogeny and Conservation. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Moritz, C., C. J. Hoskin, J. B. MacKenzie, B. L. Phillips, M. Tonione, N. Silva, J. VanDerWal, S. E. Williams, and C. H. Graham. 2009. Identification and dynamics of a cryptic suture zone in tropical rainforest. Proceedings of the Royal Society B-Biological Sciences 276:1235-1244. 122 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity
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Page 1:
Climate change refugia for terrestr
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Published by the National Climate C
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3.4.4 Future: current-2085 ........
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APPENDIX 3. Species distribution mo
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Figure 29: A detailed view of the p
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x Climate change refugia for terres
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Climate change is
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we will be in a better position to
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1.2.2 Case study 2: Pleistocene sta
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efugia meeting this latter criterio
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2.7 Conclusions Natural systems are
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highest RCP reported in the SRES (A
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3.3.4 Species data The study genera
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AUC score is negatively correlated
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Finally, we assess climate change t
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Territory, the Great Australian Big
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Figure 5: The 10 th percentile of l
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Figure 8: The absolute predicted ch
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3.4.5 Distance measures At a given
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the continent, the required movemen
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Figure 16: An example of a species
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Figure 18: Species richness for eac
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Figure 20: The number of immigrants
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Figure 22 (cont.): The ‘Immigrant
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Figure 24 (cont.): The immigrants a
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Figure 26 (cont.): The areas with t
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3.4.7.6 Areas of stability Understa
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including the Nullarbor Regional Re
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Table 2: The different classes of r
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most of the continent by 2085 that
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3.7 Gaps and future research The ne
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individual species) will respond to
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4.3.2 Topographically adjusted clim
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Tmax adj 0.5° GCM change grids (19
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Table 1: Biological groups compiled
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Invoking space-for-time substitutio
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expected to be considerably less ex
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is, the refugial analysis itself, f
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Figure 40: Refugial potential based
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Figure 43: Enlarged portion (Kimber
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Figure 46: Enlarged portion (Sydney
Page 84 and 85: Figure 48: Inclusion of areas of hi
Page 86 and 87: Figure 51: Refugial potential in th
Page 88 and 89: 4.6 Gaps and future research The GD
Page 90 and 91: 5.3 Research activities and methods
Page 92 and 93: time periods to a distance calculat
Page 94 and 95: proportion of this suitability foun
Page 96 and 97: (a) Figure 54: Stability of the cli
Page 98 and 99: Figure 55: Climate and habitat suit
Page 100 and 101: Mountains in Queensland, the Eungel
Page 102 and 103: Figure 58: Areas of endemism in the
Page 104 and 105: Northern Tablellands Figure 60: Gla
Page 106 and 107: 5.6 Discussion 5.6.1 Endemism in re
Page 108 and 109: (back to 120 kya compared to LGM in
Page 110 and 111: Within each sub-region, potential e
Page 112 and 113: Table 9: Greenspot statistics for o
Page 114 and 115: drought micro-refuges, then targete
Page 116 and 117: The iterative recalculation of all
Page 118 and 119: Figure 64: Zonation conservation pr
Page 120 and 121: 7.6 Gaps and future research The co
Page 122 and 123: Figure 66: The refugia areas result
Page 124 and 125: 8.1.3 Overall lessons from the diff
Page 126 and 127: 9. GAPS AND FUTURE RESEARCH DIRECTI
Page 128 and 129: REFERENCES Ackerly, D. D., S. R. Lo
Page 130 and 131: Couper, P. J., B. Hamley, and C. J.
Page 132 and 133: Winton, A. T. Wittenberg, F. Zeng,
Page 136 and 137: R Development Core Team. 2011. R: A
Page 138 and 139: Tingley, M. W., W. B. Monahan, S. R
Page 140 and 141: APPENDIX 1. CLIMATE SCENARIOS AND B
Page 142 and 143: Table A1-4: Eighteen Global Climate
Page 144 and 145: Table A1-5: Thirty-year climate cov
Page 146 and 147: Figure A2-68. Change in temperature
Page 148 and 149: Figure A2-70. Proportionate change
Page 150 and 151: Figure A2-72. The distance an organ
Page 152 and 153: Figure A2-74. The areas for which t
Page 154 and 155: APPENDIX 3. SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MO
Page 156 and 157: APPENDIX 4. PROJECTED SPECIES RICHN
Page 158 and 159: Figure A4-2. The species richness s
Page 160 and 161: Table of contents ABSTRACT ........
Page 162 and 163: INTRODUCTION Terrain modifies local
Page 164 and 165: RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS Dat
Page 166 and 167: Land Cover The Geosciences Australi
Page 168 and 169: Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted model
Page 170 and 171: RESULTS AND OUTPUTS Figures 8 and 9
Page 172 and 173: Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Qu
Page 174 and 175: REFERENCES ANU Fenner School of Env
Page 176 and 177: APPENDIX 6. ENVIRONMENTAL VARIABLES
Page 178 and 179: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 180 and 181: Group Short name Name Units Source
Page 182 and 183: Data Citations Bureau of Rural Scie
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APPENDIX 7. COMPOSITIONAL TURNOVER
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Table A7-9. Vascular plant data app
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to support in house applications an
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Table A7-10. Summary of GDM model f
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Variable Group Predictor variable a
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a) c) Figure A7-78. Continental Aus
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Table A7-15. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-92. Eastern Austral
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Table A7-18. Overall relative impor
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a) c) Figure A7-94. Tingle Mosaic s
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References Allen R, Pereira L, Raes
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APPENDIX 8. PLEISTOCENE STABILITY A
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Figure A8-3. Rainforest in the Aust
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Canis lupus dingo CANLUPU MAMM Cani
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Lampropholis mirabilis LAMMIRA REPT
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Stegonotus cucullatus STECUCU REPT
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Figure A10-1. Spatial patterns of v
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