Williams-Climate-change-refugia-for-terrestrial-biodiversity_0

APPENDIX 2. CLIMATE STABILITY
Table A2-1. The area for which there is no analogous temperature predicted for 2085, for RCP8.5. Analogous climate was defined as being
within two standard deviations of the current temperature mean. The “No. GCMs” in the left column relates to the number of GCMs for which
no analogous climate is identified. Therefore, there is 993 km 2 where each of the 18 GCMs all predict no analogous climate. 141
Figure A2-1. Change in temperature ( o C) for a 30-year average centred on 2085 relative to a 1990 baseline. Rows represent the 10 th , 50 th and
90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs; columns represent four emission scenarios (RCPs – representative concentration pathways) increasing in
greenhouse gas emissions from left to right. 134
Figure A2-2. The novelty of future climate for 2085 as estimated by the number of standard deviations from the mean (and variance) associated
with a 30-year baseline centred on 1990. Rows represent the 10 th , 50 th and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs; columns represent four emission
scenarios (RCPs – representative concentration pathways) increasing in greenhouse gas emissions from left to right. 135
Figure A2-3. Proportionate change in rainfall for a 30-year average centred on 2085 relative to a 1990 baseline. Rows represent the 10 th , 50 th
and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs; columns represent four emission scenarios (RCPs – representative concentration pathways) increasing
in greenhouse gas emissions from left to right. 136
Figure A2-4. The novelty of future climate for 2085 as estimated by the number of standard deviations from the mean (and variance) associated
with a 30-year baseline centred on 1990. Rows represent the 10 th , 50 th and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs; columns represent four emission
scenarios (RCPs – representative concentration pathways) increasing in greenhouse gas emissions from left to right. 137
Figure A2-5. The distance an organism would have to travel by 2085 to stay within two standard deviations of the current temperature mean.
The distance measure is shown for the 10 th , 50 th and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs for each of the four RCPs. 138
Figure A2-6. The distance an organism would have to travel by 2085 to stay within one standard deviation of the current precipitation mean.
The distance measure is shown for the 10 th , 50 th and 90 th percentiles across 18 GCMs for each of the GCMs. 139
Figure A2-7. The areas for which there is no analogous temperature predicted for 2085, for RCP8.5. Analogous climate was defined as being
within two standard deviations of the current temperature mean. The scale bar indicates the number of GCMs that predict a no analogous
climate; the green indicates all GCMs show no analogous climate for 2085. 140
Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity 133