Williams-Climate-change-refugia-for-terrestrial-biodiversity_0

Table of contents
ABSTRACT .............................................................................................................. 149
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY .......................................................................................... 149
1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................... 150
2. RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND METHODS ....................................................... 152
2.1 Data ................................................................................................................. 152
2.1.1 Remotely-sensed ETa 1992-2011................................................................................... 152
2.1.2 Plant available water holding capacity ............................................................................ 152
2.1.3 Land Cover ...................................................................................................................... 154
2.1.4 Topographically adjusted climate .................................................................................... 154
2.2 Projection of actual evaporation ....................................................................... 155
2.2.1 Actual Evapotranspiration ............................................................................................... 155
2.2.2 Correction of modelled ETa using the Budyko curve ...................................................... 155
3. RESULTS AND OUTPUTS ............................................................................... 158
4. DISCUSSION .................................................................................................... 159
REFERENCES ......................................................................................................... 162
List of figures
Figure A5-1: Remotely sensed annual ETa for Australia 1992-
2011..............................................153
Figure A5-2: 9 second FD8 compound topographic index adjusted plant available water holding
capacity used as input to the Budyko water balance model......................................................153
Figure A5-3 Terrain adjusted modelled annual ETp for Australia 1982-2010. .........................154
Figure A5-4: Terrain adjusted modelled annual ETa for Australia 1982-2010..........................156
Figure A5-5: Remotely sensed – modelled ETa (mm/year) by DLC land cover class, for two
values of n (1.0 and 2.6) at 9s and n=1.9 at 0.05° resolution....................................................156
Figure A5-6: Scaling the difference between modelled and remotely sensed actual
evapotranspiration using the Budyko framework.......................................................................157
Figure A5-7: Spatial distribution of the Φ (P/ETp) axis offset applied to correct future modelled
estimates of ETa ........................................................................................................................157
Figure A5-8: Projected ETa for the “wet” GCM Miroc-h, for 2085, RCP8.5. The map uses the
same scale as Figure 1.............................................................................................................158
Figure A5-9: Projected ETa for the “dry” GCM GFDL-ESM2, for 2085, RCP8.5. The map uses
the same scale as Figure 1.... ..................................................................................................159
Figure A5-10 Channel Country (SW Queensland). Projected ETa for the “dry” GCM GFDL-
ESM2, for 2085, RCP8.5. The map uses the same scale as Figure 1..................................... 160
Figure A5-11: Western Tasmania. Projected ETa for the “dry” GCM GFDL-ESM2, for 2085,
RCP8.5......................................................................................................................................161
148 Climate change refugia for terrestrial biodiversity