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TA02 ■ TA02 Legends Ballroom II Google WPP Award Papers Cluster: Internet and Interactive Marketing Invited Session Chair: Shuba Srinivasan, Associate Professor of Marketing, Boston University, School of Management, 595 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, United States of America, ssrini@bu.edu 1 - A Structural Model of Employee Behavioral Dynamics in Enterprise Social Media Yan Huang, PhD Student, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States of America, yanhuang@andrew.cmu.edu, Anindya Ghose We develop and estimate a dynamic structural framework to analyze social media content creation and consumption behavior by employees within an enterprise. We focus in particular on employees’ blogging behavior. The model is flexible enough to handle trade-offs between blog posting and blog reading as well as between workrelated content and leisure-related content, all of which are ubiquitous in actual blogging forums. We apply the model to a unique dataset that comprises of the complete details of blog posting and reading behavior of 2396 employees over a 15month period at a Fortune 1000 IT services and consulting firm. We find that blogging has a significant long-term effect in that it is only in the long term that the benefits of blogging outweigh the costs. There is also evidence of strong competition among employees with regard to attracting readership for their posts. While readership of leisure posts provides little direct utility, employees still post a significant amount of these posts because there is a significant spillover effect on the readership of work posts from leisure posts. In the counterfactual experiment, we find that a policy of prohibiting leisure-related activities can hurt the knowledge sharing in enterprise setting. By demonstrating that there are positive spillovers from work-related blogging to leisure-related blogging, our results suggest that a policy of abolishing leisure-related content creation can inadvertently have adverse consequences on work-related content creation in an enterprise social media setting. 2 - Media Aggregators and the Link Economy: Strategic Hyperlink Formation in Content Networks Chrysanthos Dellarocas, Associate Professor, Boston University, Boston, MA, United States of America, dell@bu.edu, William Rand, Zsolt Katona A key property of the World Wide Web is the possibility for firms to place virtually costless links to third-party content as a substitute or complement to their own content. This ability to hyperlink has enabled new types of players, such as search engines and content aggregators, to successfully enter content ecosystems, attracting traffic and revenue by hosting links to the content of others. This, in turn, has sparked a heated controversy between content producers and aggregators regarding the legitimacy and social costs/benefits of uninhibited free linking. This work is the first to model the implications of interrelated and strategic hyper-linking and content investments. Our results provide a nuanced view of the, so called, “link economy”. We show that it is possible for content sites of similar ability to reduce competition and improve profits by forming links to each other; in these networks one site would invest heavily in content and other sites would link to it. Interestingly, competitive dynamics often preclude the formation of these link networks, even in settings where they would improve joint profits. Within these networks, aggregators can have both positive and negative effects. On the positive side aggregators make it easier for consumers to find good quality content, and thus increase the appeal of the entire content ecosystem, relative to alternative media. At the same time, their market entry takes away some of the attention and revenue that would otherwise go to content sites. Finally, by placing links to only a subset of available content, aggregators increase competitive pressure on content sites, inducing them to create better content but generate lower profits. 3 - The Broadcast Window Effect: Information Discovery and Cross-channel Substitution Patterns for Media Content Rahul Telang, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA, 15213, United States of America, rtelang@andrew.cmu.edu, Michael Smith, Anuj Kumar Several recent papers in the literature have shown that for movies and music, a small proportion of titles account for the majority of sales. In this paper we collect DVD sales data for movies broadcast on premium pay cable channels to analyze the degree to which information asymmetry is driving this skewness in the sales distribution for movies. Our data show that while broadcasting movies on pay cable channels increases demand for those movies, the increase in demand is disproportionately large for less popular movies. This suggests an information spillover effect of the movie broadcast: movie broadcast increases awareness about lesser-known movies and thus helps uninformed consumer discover the movies. Since popular movies are highly advertised during the theatrical and DVD release, there is less scope of discovery during its broadcast. In contrast, less successful movies are more likely to be discovered during its broadcast and thus experience higher increase in DVD sales during this period. We further estimate learning based model of DVD demand to precisely quantify the proportion of uninformed customers and thus lost DVD sales due to incomplete information. Our study contributes to the growing literature on impact of information provision on market outcomes and on the dynamics of long tail markets. MARKETING SCIENCE CONFERENCE – 2011 2 4 - Are Audience Based Online Metrics Leading Indicators of Brand Performance? Shuba Srinivasan, Associate Professor of Marketing, Boston University, School of Management, 595 Commonwealth Avenue, Boston, MA, 02215, United States of America, ssrini@bu.edu, Randolph Bucklin, Koen Pauwels, Oliver Rutz This study analyzes the added explanatory value of including audience-based online metrics in a sales response model that already accounts for short and long-term effects of the traditional marketing mix. We also investigate the relationships among ‘behavioral’ intermediate measures (such as click-through) and ‘attitudinal’ intermediate metrics, such as brand liking. Finally, we assess whether online metrics are leading indicators of brand performance. Dynamic systems models connect marketing mix actions, online and offline mindset metrics and sales over time for a leading consumer packaged good. We find that including online marketing metrics adds significant predictive ability to models of sales performance. However, online success may also generate online backlash and both positive as negative online affect drives performance. In turn, online metrics are driven by marketing actions, including advertising and price. Our findings suggest that customer engagement in online specific campaigns indeed helps build brands. ■ TA03 Legends Ballroom III Internet Contributed Session Chair: Anita Elberse, Associate Professor, Harvard Business School, Soldiers Field, Boston, MA, 02163, United States of America, aelberse@hbs.edu 1 - Information Available versus Information Acquired? Implications for Consumer Choice Models S. Siddarth, University of Southern California, Marshall School of Business, 3660 Trousdale Parkway, Los Angeles, CA, 90089, United States of America, siddarth@marshall.usc.edu, Imran Currim, Ofer Mintz Consumers face daily decisions about the products they want to buy. The digital revolution has significantly enhanced consumers’ accessibility to information and hence the value they derive from it. Commercial websites have the ability to data offer the consumer a choice to acquire product feature information and analyze this data to provide insights that could improve their ability to convert visitors into buyers. In this research we seek to understand how consumers use product information and how best to model their choice process. We analyze the choices of a sample of shoppers who visited a website and had an opportunity to choose one out of three products, for which the firm provided information on a large set of product features. A unique aspect of the data is that the attribute values in the corresponding cells were hidden and shoppers had to explicitly click on cells to acquire this information. We estimate a set of choice models to infer the impact of the features on consumer choice including a standard multinomial logit model that incorporates all of the available alternative and attribute information, a choice set model that accounts only for those alternatives that consumers explicitly consider, a restricted attribute model that only incorporates the attribute information that was explicitly acquired, and, finally, a model that accounts for both choice sets and attribute restriction. We compare the predictive performance of the models on a holdout sample and also compare the parameter estimates in order to gain insights into how inferences about the impact of different attributes on consumer choice depend upon the information acquired. 2 - Investigating the Dynamic Impact of Advertising on Online Search and Offline Sales Jeffrey Dotson, Assistant Professor of Marketing, Vanderbilt University, 401 21st Avenue South, Nashville, TN, 37203, United States of America, jeff.dotson@owen.vanderbilt.edu, Qing Liu, Sandeep Chandukala, Stefan Conrady Although the conditions that motivate individuals to buy, sell, search, and post on the internet are diverse, the information generated as a byproduct of these activities has the potential to help marketers develop a better understanding of consumer and firm behavior. In this paper we collect and utilize online product consideration data in order to build a dynamic model of sales and advertising. The objectives of this research are twofold: first, to incorporate secondary data collected from online sources into a model of demand, thus improving our ability to forecast sales; and second, to develop a better understanding of the role of advertising in the sales generation process. We illustrate the benefits of our approach using data for a luxury automobile brand where we show that the role of advertising is one of demand creation rather than purchase acceleration. 3 - Not to Click Through: The Benefits of Search Engine Advertising - Combination of Old and New Media German Zenetti, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Grueneburgplatz 1, Frankfurt, Germany, zenetti@wiwi.uni-frankfurt.de, Tammo Bijmolt, Peter Leeflang, Daniel Klapper The technological process together with the widespread integration of the internet makes new communication possibilities available, especially for e-commerce products online adverting channels become more attractive. Thus, an important question for firms is to find out which combination of communication channels should be used to
address a target group. i.e., should an advertising channel, such as search engine advertising, be integrated in the existing advertising planning? Which synergy effects will take place in that case with traditional media, such as TV? In this approach pre and post campaign survey data are used to measure the impact and synergy of TV, online and search engine adverting on four marketing metrics simultaneously. In doing so, it is accounted for the connectivity of the cognitive, affective and conative dimensions of advertising effectiveness, which might occur due to unmeasured variables that jointly influence advertising effectiveness. The results show that next to TV advertising also search engine advertising has significant effects on marketing metrics. Additionally, online advertising enhances the impact of TV advertising and search engine advertising enlarges the effectiveness of TV and online advertising. Thus, depending on the context managers should consider the inclusion of online and search engine advertising as marketing tool. 4 - Viral Videos: The Dynamics of Online Video Advertising Campaigns Anita Elberse, Associate Professor, Harvard Business School, Soldiers Field, Boston, MA, 02163, United States of America, aelberse@hbs.edu, Clarence Lee, Lingling Zhang Firms increasingly promote their products using advertisements posted on online video-sharing sites such as YouTube. There, web users often redistribute these “advertiser-seeded” advertisements, either in their original form or as altered, derivative works. Such user-generated “viral” placements can significantly enhance the true number of an advertising campaign’s impressions – in fact, across our data for movie and video game trailers, the number of views generated by viral placements is eight times greater than the number of views for the original “advertiser-seeded” placements. In this study, in order to help advertisers understand how their online video advertisements spread, we investigate the dynamics of viral video campaigns, modeling the accumulation of advertiser-seeded and user-generated views as two interrelated processes. We find that several instruments under the control of advertisers – notably the intensity, timing, and coverage of original video placements – influence the extent to which campaigns benefit from user-generated content. Our results suggest that, with the right strategy, advertisers can substantially and inexpensively increase the number of impressions that their online video campaigns yield. ■ TA04 Legends Ballroom V Bayesian Econometrics I: Methods & Application Contributed Session Chair: Keyvan Dehmamy, Goethe University Frankfurt, Grüneburgplatz 1, Frankfurt a.M., 60323, Germany, dehmamy@wiwi.uni-frankfurt.de 1 - Dyadic Patent Citation and Firm Performance Yantao Wang, Marketing Department, Kellogg School of Management, 2001 Sheridan Rd, Evanston, IL, 60208, United States of America, yantao-wang@kellogg.northwestern.edu, Sha Yang, Yi Qian Firms in an industry are likely to interact with each other in different ways. Because of these interactions, one firm’s performance is not independent from the influence of other firms. One important form of firm interaction is patent citation. Dyadic patent citation reflects firm interaction in the form of innovative interdependence between two firms and the diffusion of knowledge among firms. Therefore, the first goal of this paper is to use annual information on the number of patents firm i (sender) cites from firm j (receiver) to measure knowledge interdependence, and to explain the interdependence by the dyad –specific characteristics of the two firms, the characteristics of the sender and the receiver, and latent dyad-, sender-, and receiverspecific factors. Knowledge diffusion can have important implications on the invention of new products, which in turn impacts the firm’s performance. Therefore, our second goal in this paper is to predict firm performance using firm’s sensitivity to its role as a sender as well as a receiver in the citation process while controlling for other time-varying characteristics of the firm. We build a two-step econometric model to simultaneously estimate the citation and performance equations using Bayesian MCMC method that also accounts for firm heterogeneity. 2 - Dyadic Choice and Compromise Effects: Implications for Decision Optimality Lin Bao, PhD Student, University of Wisconsin-Madison, 4181 Grainger Hall, 975 University Ave, Madison, WI, 53706, United States of America, bao1@wisc.edu, Neeraj Arora, Qing Liu The compromise effect has been extensively studied in the marketing literature (e.g. Simonson 1989, Kivetz et al 2004). Its basic premise is that individuals are more likely to choose an intermediate option versus an extreme option. In this research we study how the compromise effect manifests itself in dyadic choices. In particular we investigate two questions: 1) Do dyads exhibit enhanced compromise effects than individuals? 2) Do such dyadic compromise effects enhance the likelihood that a suboptimal decision will be made by a dyad? At a theoretical level, an investigation of dyadic compromise effect is of interest because extant research on group polarization (Myers and Lamm 1976) suggests that groups are more likely to choose the extreme options. In contrast, evidence also exists that dyads with divergent preferences tend to negotiate and settle on an intermediate option (Menasco and Curry 1989). Also, it is known that the perception of being evaluated by group members enhances individual susceptibility to the compromise effect (Simonson 1989). In this research we develop a dyadic choice model that incorporates individual and dyad level compromise effects. Heterogeneity in compromise effects is captured using Bayesian MARKETING SCIENCE CONFERENCE – 2011 TA05 3 methods. A series of experiments are conducted to empirically test the model. Our initial results demonstrate that dyads indeed exhibit enhanced compromise effects than individuals. An adaptive study design customized for individual member preferences will be used to demonstrate that dyadic compromise effects enhance the likelihood of suboptimal decisions made by dyads. We link our findings to product design, dyadic welfare and decision quality of groups. We suggest tactics groups can adopt to minimize suboptimal choice decisions. 3 - Choice from Simulated Store Shelves - How Similar are Two Identical SKUs? Keyvan Dehmamy, Goethe University Frankfurt, Grüneburgplatz 1, Frankfurt a.M., 60323, Germany, dehmamy@wiwi.uni-frankfurt.de, Thomas Otter Multiple facings of identical SKUs are the rule in commercial retailing and the available shelf space that determines the number of facings of a particular offering is scarce and expensive. Recently, various commercial market researchers have attempted to experimentally study the effect of the number of facings on the demand for individual SKUs. The basic idea is to conduct choice experiments where the choice sets vary the number of facings of individual offerings as an additional factor. We take this data as an opportunity to investigate primitive aspects of choice behavior. For example, we measure the degree of similarity competition b/w multiple facings of the same SKU and across different SKUs and the joint effect of satiation and similarity on the chosen quantities. At this point we are not concerned with the external validity of these experiments but interested in learning about fundamental aspects of choice behavior. ■ TA05 Legends Ballroom VI New Product I: Introduction Contributed Session Chair: Michael Cohen, Assistant Professor in Residence, University of Connecticut, 1376 Storrs Road Unit 4021, Storrs, CT, 06269-4021, United States of America, michael.cohen@uconn.edu 1 - Observational Learning and Networking Externality in Decision-making Dongling Huang, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute, 110 8th Street, Pitts., Troy, NY, 12180, United States of America, huangd3@rpi.edu, Yuanping Ying, Andrei Strijnev We investigate the early momentum of new product release. When making a purchase decision, consumers often turn to two different sources of information: consumer word-of-mouth communications and other consumers’ purchase behavior. A third important non-infomational factor consumers may also consider is the fact that the number of existing users of a product may bring additional social or other functional benefits. In reality, the following three factors may all be in play: information sharing, observational learning, and network externalities. We attempt to account for all three factors in the consumer’s decision making process using movie sales data. Specifically, we propose a simple yet effective identification approach to separating the effects of observational learning and network externalities, while controlling for word-of-month. We condition our analysis on movie quality and opening momentum. Using our identification scheme, we find that both observational learning and network externalities have a considerable impact on consumers’ movie going decisions. In particular, network externalities have a stronger effect than observational learning. 2 - Optimizing the Three Dimensions of New FMCG’s Market Success by Means of the Marketing Mix Tilo Halaszovich, Assistant Professor, University of Bremen, Hochschulring 4, Bremen, 28359, Germany, tilo.halaszovich@uni-bremen.de, Christoph Burmann “Innovate or die”, as stated by Robert G. Cooper since the 1980s, seems to become “innovate and die” in light of new products failing at an alarming rate of up to 80% in most FMCG markets. Therefore, in today’s marketplaces the firm’s ability to commercialize new products successfully is a central success factor. The disproportion between their importance and missing success can partly be attributed to a lack of knowledge concerning the influence of the marketing mix instruments on the outcome of new FMCG launches. Market performance of a new product is thereby a three dimensional construct including the product’s value share and its ability to generate customer satisfaction as well as customer acceptance. Given the fact that these three dimensions are closely connected with each other, understanding the marketing mix influence on the new FMCG’s market success requires simultaneous control for each success dimension and their interactions. Therefore, the authors develop a dynamic structural equation model which allows measuring the marketing mix impact in a holistic structure. The model is fitted to a sample of new FMCG launches in laundry and home-care markets in Germany and based on scanner-panel data. The results of the model reveal the interactions between all three measures and how they are influenced by the marketing mix in different ways. Combining these findings, an optimization of the whole marketing mix is possible throughout the introduction phase of new FMCG products.
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