Gasoline Price Changes - Federal Trade Commission

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GASOLINE PRICE CHANGES: led to higher gasoline prices nationwide. 16 As a result, the predicted prices for Phoenix after the pipeline break were higher than those predicted before the pipeline break. With lower supply availability than just before the pipeline first broke, and increased national demand, gasoline prices in Phoenix would not be expected to return to their pre-pipeline-break levels. Ripple Effects: Tucson Gasoline Prices. The pipeline break also disrupted gasoline supplies in Tucson, even though the break was on a pipeline from Tucson to Phoenix. The pipeline rupture caused the Tucson terminal to experience a major shortage of gasoline storage capacity. The special-grade “Phoenix-mix” gasoline that normally would have been shipped to Phoenix had to be stored at the Tucson terminal, thereby reducing available storage capacity. This reduction in storage capacity led to the temporary shutdown of the pipeline into Tucson, also reducing the supply of gasoline for Tucson. Both events helped force prices upward in Tucson, 17 as did the EPA waiver that allowed Phoenix gas stations to use – and to compete with Tucson gas stations for – conventional gasoline. Ripple Effects: West Coast Gasoline Prices. The interrelationship between gasoline prices in Phoenix and on the West Coast is apparent in Figure 1-5. As reflected in this figure, Phoenix and Los Angeles prices follow the same general trends. For example, Los Angeles gasoline prices rose following the pipeline break, although they rose less than did prices in Phoenix. This effect is not surprising – as Phoenix gas stations offered higher prices to win gasoline from West Coast suppliers, West Coast gas stations also had to offer higher prices to keep supply in California. Thus, gasoline prices in other parts of California rose as Arizona gas stations competed to obtain additional gasoline supplies for Phoenix. Even Oregon and Washington gasoline prices were affected by the Phoenix shortage. Washington refineries traditionally supply gasoline to both Oregon and California markets, as well as to Washington markets. The higher prices in California that were necessary to compete with higher Phoenix prices also caused some Washington refiners to sell more supply than usual in California. This diverted supply from Oregon and Washington markets and resulted in higher prices in those states. The additional demand from Phoenix, combined with the already tight California gasoline market, put pressure on gasoline prices all along the West Coast, forcing those prices higher than they otherwise would have been. 6 FEDERAL TRADE COMMISSION, JUNE 2005
Price (Cents per Gallon) 220 200 180 160 140 120 100 0 7/1/2003 7/8/2003 7/15/2003 7/22/2003 7/29/2003 THE DYNAMIC OF SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND COMPETITION Figure 1-5: Phoenix and Los Angeles Retail Gasoline Actual Price and Upper Bound of Predicted Price Range, Regular Unleaded (Daily OPIS; Includes taxes) Source: OPIS KM Tucson-to-Phoenix line ruptures (7/30) Tucson-to-Phoenix bypass begins service (8/24) 8/5/2003 8/12/2003 8/19/2003 EPA waiver in effect (8/20) Service on Tucson-to-Phoenix line suspended (8/8) Phoenix-Mesa, AZ Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA Phoenix-Upper Bound Los Angeles-Upper Bound II. LESSONS FROM THIS STORY: PRICES SIGNAL PRODUCERS TO ADJUST SUPPLY, AND CONSUMERS TO ADJUST DEMAND, TO FIT CHANGING MARKET CONDITIONS. This story explains how rising gasoline prices in Phoenix brought in new gasoline supplies that prevented gasoline prices from skyrocketing even higher. This is one role that prices play in markets. In general, the price of a commodity, such as gasoline, reflects producers’ costs and consumers’ willingness to pay. The price signals the relative value of that commodity compared to other goods and services. How much a firm is willing and able to produce at a given price is determined by many things, including how much it must pay for the labor it hires, the land and resources it uses, the capital it employs, the material inputs it must purchase, the transportation it must use, and the risks associated with its investment. Consumers’ overall willingness to pay for a product also is determined by a large variety of factors, such as the existence and prices of substitutes, income, and individual needs and tastes. Price changes generally reflect changes in producer costs or consumer demand. Simply put, prices rise if it costs more to produce and supply a good, or if people desire to buy more of that good at the current price. Prices fall if it costs less to produce and supply a good, or if people desire to buy less of that good at the current price. When changes in producer costs or CHAPTER 1: SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND COMPETITION 7 8/26/2003 9/2/2003 9/9/2003 9/16/2003 9/23/2003 9/30/2003
Page 2: Federal Trade Commission DEBORAH PL
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Page 21 and 22: Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Page 23 and 24: C. In 2004, the Geopolitical Outloo
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Page 27 and 28: 3. Gasoline prices in the East Coas
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Page 31 and 32: To obtain the additional supply the
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Page 37 and 38: words, short-run demand for gasolin
Page 39 and 40: Endnotes THE DYNAMIC OF SUPPLY, DEM
Page 41 and 42: CHAPTER 2. WORLDWIDE SUPPLY, DEMAND
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Page 49 and 50: Thousand Barrels per Day 18,000 16,
Page 55 and 56: Million Barrels per Day 0.9 0.8 0.7
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Page 75 and 76: Year-over-year Percentage Change in
Page 79 and 80: Capacity (Million Barrels per Calen
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THE DYNAMIC OF SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND
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Endnotes THE DYNAMIC OF SUPPLY, DEM
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CHAPTER 4. SUPPLY, DEMAND, AND COMP
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Price Difference (Cents per Gallon)
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Millions of Barrels 1,500 1,250 1,0
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Millions of Barrels per Day 9 8 7 6
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CHAPTER 5. STATE AND LOCAL POLICIES
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Percentage of Customers Lost to 1%
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Retail Price (cents per gallon) 220
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Share (Percent) 80 70 60 50 40 30 2
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Price (Cents per Gallon) 200 190 18
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6. GAO, supra note 5, at 20. 7. Id.
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Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) Th
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Gasoline Price Changes - Federal Trade Commission

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