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Russian Federation in 1992-1993. 157 In addition, approximately 2,000 Avar “forced migrants” left Georgia’s eastern border districts of Lagodekhy and Kvarely for Dagestan after 1991. 158 The influx of refugees from Georgia into the North Caucasus was compounded by the outbreak of armed conflict between North Ossetia and Ingushetia in the autumn of 1992, which resulted in the further displacement of approximately 30,000 Ingush refugees from the Prigorodny district of North Ossetia into Ingushetia, and the internal migration of 3,300 Ossetians within the borders of North Ossetia. 159 The general instability and the influx of North Caucasian refugees into the region also encouraged the out-migration of the ethnic Russian population of the republics in the same period. In Dagestan, for example, by 1995 only 50,000 ethnic Russians out of a pre-1991 population of 200,000 were left in the republic. 160 In contrast with the repercussions from the conflicts in Georgia and North Ossetia, the influx of refugees into the North Caucasus from the Armenian-Azerbaijani conflict over Nagorno- Karabakh has been comparatively small. This is in spite of the protracted nature of the conflict and its obvious catastrophic effects on Armenia and Azerbaijan. While recent statistics gathered by Dagestani research institutes suggest that the entire pre-1989 North Caucasian population of Armenia (approximately 1,500 people) has been induced to return to the North Caucasus, the North Caucasian population of Azerbaijan has remained in place. Even what is generally considered to be the fraught relationship between Azerbaijan and its Lezgin population has not encouraged largescale out-migration from Azerbaijan since 1989. While many North Caucasian youths have avoided the Azerbaijani draft by seeking refuge across the border in Dagestan, this is generally seen as a temporary phenomenon encouraged by their national organizations. Since the outbreak of war in Nagorno-Karabakh, North Caucasian organizations, such as the Lezgin national movement Sadval, have portrayed the war as an internal ethnic conflict between Azeris and Armenians and not as an inter-state war. As such, they have ruled that Azerbaijani citizens from other ethnic groups are neither morally nor legally required to participate. The relative stability of Azerbaijan’s North Caucasian population is explained by the fact that the population consists primarily of Dagestanis living on what is considered to be their historic territory. Although Azerbaijan’s official policy towards its Dagestani population was marked by cultural and ethnic discrimination during the leadership of Gaidar Aliev 161 in the 1970s, this course 157 See Valerian Vashakidze, the Chairman of the Georgian State Committee on Refugee Affairs, in CMG Bulletin, June 1995, p.22. 158 A figure which accounts for almost half of the total Avar population in Georgia. 159 These figures are from the Migratory Service of the Republic of North Ossetia, cited in CMG Bulletin, June 1995, p. 50. 160 This figure was provided by the Ministry of Nationalities and External Affairs of Dagestan in August 1995 during interviews with Nicholas and Ruth Daniloff. 161 Gaidar Aliev is now the current Azerbaijani President, having been restored to power in June 1993 following the overthrow of Abulfez Elchibey. 86
was reversed in the late 1980s. 162 In addition, confessional and cultural links between the former Soviet republic and the majority of the North Caucasian republics tend to mitigate against interethnic conflict between North Caucasians and Azeris. The Demographic and Political Implications of the Refugee Crisis: A survey in March 1995 by Khasan Dzutsev of 2,000 Ossetian refugees from the conflict in Georgia now resident in North Ossetia illustrates the causes of migration and the problems associated with the refugee crisis across all of the North Caucasus. As the tables below show, the vast majority of Ossetian refugees left South Ossetia in response to persecution on an ethnic basis, including the threat of losing their jobs. Less than one quarter of the refugees are now willing to return to their former homes. As a result, they face the associated problems of obtaining residency in North Ossetia and finding housing and employment. Both housing and employment are dependent on permanent resident status in the Russian Federation. Table 1. Causes of migration identified by Ossetian respondents 163 Causes Percentage of respondents Persecution on ethnic an basis 84.9% Threats of dismissal from job 53.0% Threats of violent reprisals 51.0% Violent reprisals against close relatives 51.0% Experience of violent reprisals 45.0% Table 2. The most acute problems facing refugees and forced migrants in North Ossetia 164 Problem Percentage of respondents Housing 63.9% Resident status 60.2% Employment 49.5% 162 The attempt to redress the balance is reflected in the census of 1989. For example, the official population of Avars in Azerbaijan in 1989 grew by 22.5% in comparison with 1979 (from 36,000 to 44,000), of Tsakhurs by 55.8% (from 8,500 to 13,300), and of Lezgins by 8.4% (from 158,100 to 171,400). These dramatic increases were not the result of natural factors but of new accuracy in registering North Caucasians with their ethnic group rather than as Azeris. 163 Table also published in CMG Bulletin, June 1995, p.43. 164 Table also published in CMG Bulletin, June 1995, p. 43. 87
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“RUSSIA’S TINDERBOX” Conflict
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PREFACE Background to the Report In
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“RUSSIA’S TINDERBOX” Conflict
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and dependent on subsidies from the
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• Cleavages between Orthodoxy and
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1. The Administra
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3. The failure of Russian policy: S
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SECTION I The Structural Legacy of
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Supreme Soviet and a Presidium of t
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Tenglik went so as far as to blocka
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The Soviet government of the Russia
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From 1991, the question of whether
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Russia, announced the formation of
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as a mediator in inter-ethnic confl
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After 1991, Abkhazia’s role as th
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members of the KNK all have a diffe
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SECTION III The Failure of Russia
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absolving the Ministry for National
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This activity has raised expectatio
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1. Yeltsin’s March 1991 Visit to
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The first report recommended that,
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In response to the refusal of the K
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SECTION IV Territorial Disputes in
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inflammatory rhetoric, others have
Page 49 and 50: government, the expectation was tha
Page 51 and 52: 2. The secession of Chechnya from R
Page 53 and 54: epeated ultimatums to the Ingush to
Page 55 and 56: The refugee issue and the status of
Page 57 and 58: Government interventions have been
Page 59 and 60: Another territorial dispute in Dage
Page 61 and 62: To protect their group rights in th
Page 63 and 64: 1991 the referendum on statehood wa
Page 65 and 66: a dual Cherkess-Abazin federal repu
Page 67 and 68: The Krai’s ethnic composition is,
Page 69 and 70: Other Circassian peoples and the KN
Page 71 and 72: The Revival of the Cossacks in the
Page 73 and 74: the region. These meetings and of i
Page 75 and 76: The Cossacks are now perceived by t
Page 77 and 78: in Kazakhstan. The 1991 Law on the
Page 79 and 80: Chechnya was operating; 122 and a h
Page 81 and 82: As modern civil society ceased to f
Page 83 and 84: emergency session of the Checheno-I
Page 85 and 86: Soviet weaponry, including tanks an
Page 87 and 88: consisted of the most radical facti
Page 89 and 90: In 1992-1993, the opposition’s re
Page 91 and 92: In the North Caucasian republics, t
Page 93 and 94: Moscow. Since Budennovsk, the knowl
Page 95 and 96: The War in Chechnya and Implication
Page 97 and 98: Conclusion As the discussion in the
Page 99: APPENDIX 1 The Refugee crisis in th
Page 103 and 104: and the already high levels of unem
Page 105 and 106: APPENDIX 2 The Islamic Factor in th
Page 107 and 108: incorporating their principle figur
Page 109 and 110: Since the war in Chechnya, and give
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