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Research method
Other works discussing design science research evaluation includes Pries-Heje et al.
(2008) and Cleven et al. (2009). The main contribution of Pries-Heje et al. (2008) is on
the discussion and differentiation between the ex post and ex ante and the naturalistic
and artificial evaluation of design science research, and provides a framework for
separating these dimensions. Cleven et al. (2009) suggests a more extensive framework 5
for evaluation by proposing 12 initial variables and their respective values in a
morphological field to describe the selection of approaches available.
2.2.6 Future studies and scenario-planning
Methods found within future research and scenario-planning can also be used to guide
artefact design. The principal objectives of futures research is to help inform
perceptions, alternatives, and choices about the future by laying out paths of
possibilities (the art of the ‘possible’); examining in detail particular paths and the
likelihood of their occurring (the science of the ‘probable’); or expressing preferences
for, and implementing, particular paths (the politics of the ‘preferable’) (Amara, 1991).
Example approaches for laying out probable visions for the future include Delphi
studies or trend impact analysis (Glenn and Gordon, 2009). Through studying current
events and trends, megatrends can be identified and studied for future societal impact. A
megatrend is…
… a significant movement, tendency or force that is commencing or occurring in
one (regional) or more (global) parts of the world, and that is expected to
continue well into the foreseeable future. Moreover, a megatrend has a profound
effect on nearly every aspect of a society, affecting individuals and businesses.
Sultan et al. (2008)
Scenarios can be constructed based on an analysis of trends or a given possible forecast.
A scenario is not a forecast itself, but one possible future outcome (Porter, 1985).
Scenarios are stories, based on an included or presupposed setting, about people and
their activities. Scenarios can also include agents or actors, typically having separate
goals or objectives, making possible multiple views of the same scenario. Scenarios
have a plot, and include sequences of actions and events, things that actors do, and
things that happen to them (Carroll, 2000). Compared to a use-case, scenarios
correspond to use-case instances, and while a use-case expresses all the possible paths
of events, a scenario can describe part of the possible path. In addition, a use-case seeks
a formal treatment defining a model while a scenario seeks an informal treatment (Go
and Carroll, 2004).
Constructing scenarios inescapably evokes refection in the context of design. Scenario
planning…
… is a process of positing several informed, plausible and imagined alternative
future environments in which decisions about the future may be played out, for
the purpose of changing current thinking, improving decision making,
enhancing human and organization learning and improving performance.
5 See Table 5 Section 7.2
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