Zimbabwe - Overseas Development Institute

and 2, above, the f i r s t ten years of the UDI era were the period
of the most r a p i d increase i n r e a l value added and i n the MVA/GDP
r a t i o . A second notable feature i n d i c a t e d by the o v e r a l l r e s u l t s
- and one which, i f an accurate r e f l e c t i o n of what a c t u a l l y
occurred, casts doubt, at l e a s t i n part, upon the more f r e e -
market p o l i c y p r e s c r i p t i o n s f o r the sector - i s that there i s no
marked d i f f e r e n c e i n the r e l a t i v e export performance of the
sector during the more "open" Federal period and the more
"closed" UDI period. There i s , however, a s t r i k i n g contrast with
the f i n a l period when the export growth component of the change
i n output f e l l d r a m a t i c a l l y at the same time as domestic demand
accounted f o r i n excess of 100% of the increase i n gross output^".
This drop i n export shares o c c u r r i n g concurrently with a
r i s e i n the share a t t r i b u t e d to domestic demand^i confirms the
hypothesis presented i n the 1986 UNIDO report that, at l e a s t f o r
n o n - t r a d i t i o n a l manufactured exports, there appears to be a
trade-off between the domestic and export markets with the export
market s u f f e r i n g when domestic demand r i s e s (1986b:267-306) .
These r e s u l t s do, however, r a i s e the more general question
of the accuracy of t h i s "sources of growth" a n a l y s i s and the
extent to which i t does r e f l e c t adequately the dynamic changes
which have taken place w i t h i n manufacturing. In p a r t i c u l a r , the
approach almost c e r t a i n l y underestimates the extent of import
s u b s t i t u t i o n because i t only regards a reduction i n the import
r a t i o as import s u b s t i t u t i o n i n the year i n which the relevant
f a l l i n imports i s recorded; t h e r e a f t e r the import s u b s t i t u t i o n
e f f e c t i s not e x p l i c i t l y considered and the change i n output i s
a l l o c a t e d e i t h e r to domestic demand or export, as appropriate^^ _
F i n a l l y , i t should be r e i t e r a t e d that t h i s aspect of the
"sources of growth" a n a l y s i s i s designed to i n d i c a t e r e l a t i v e
changes i n the d i f f e r e n t c o n s t i t u e n t sources of output - i t i s
not designed to reveal absolute change. Thus although the r i g h t
hand part of Figure 4 records import s u b s t i t u t i o n as negative i n
the period 1978/79 to 1982/83, t h i s does not mean that there has
been a r e v e r s a l of import s u b s t i t u t i o n i n manufacturing over the
post-Independence period: i t i s only a r e l a t i v e f a l l which i s
i n d i c a t e d . Anyone f a m i l i a r with Zimbabwean i n d u s t r y knows f u l l
w e l l that continued import s u b s t i t u t i o n has been a notable
feature of many firms i n recent years, running not i n f r e q u e n t l y
i n t o m i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s of import saving^^.
"Sources" of growth data f o r the whole manufacturing sector
over the past 30 years mask d i f f e r e n t patterns of performance
w i t h i n p a r t i c u l a r sub-sectors over d i f f e r e n t periods of time.
Tables 3 and 4, together with Figure 5, summarise the subs
e c t o r a l data.
Some i n i t i a l observations can be made from t h i s data. The
pattern of greater r e l a t i v e import s u b s t i t u t i o n occurring i n the
Federal rather than UDI period, observed i n the aggregate data,
i s repeated f o r a l l sub-sectors^ •> : for sub-sectors { 4 ) , ( 5) , (7 ) ,-
(8) and (9) the d i f f e r e n c e s are extremely marked. Ir. contrast
with the Federal period, during UDI, there was also a s i g n i f i c a n t
f a l l i n the r e l a t i v e growth of exports f o r the r a j o r i t y cf