Zimbabwe - Overseas Development Institute

More documents

Recommendations

Info

equally s t e r i l e question of the f o r e i g n exchange saved by importing the inputs to manufacture goods rather than importing the f i n a l product. The 1986 UNIDO study made some crude ( s t a t i c ) estimates of d i r e c t f o r e i g n exchange usage and earnings of the manufacturing sector. I t showed that i n 1982, the manufacturing sector u t i l i s e d some $480 mn i n f o r e i g n exchange,whereas manufactured exports t o t a l l e d $277 mn, g i v i n g a "net l o s s " to the economy of $203 mn, but also, c o r r e c t l y pointed out that were Zimbabwe to have closed down i t s manufacturing sector, foregone i t s manufactured exports and imported those products i t was c u r r e n t l y manufacturing then the net f o r e i g n exchange loss f o r that year would have amounted to $2,237 mn, over twice the t o t a l import b i l l f o r that year. (1986b:38-43) 37. Such a f i g u r e would be extremely d i f f i c u l t to compute f o r i t would have not only to be based on the value of d i r e c t imports from d i f f e r e n t sources but a l s o on the estimated f o r e i g n exchange component of d o m e s t i c a l l y produced goods, i n c l u d i n g - i f i t were to be accurate - the discounted f o r e i g n exchange component of the c a p i t a l equipment used i n the manufacturing process, as w e l l as the f o r e i g n exchange component of energy u t i l i s e d . 38. The f i g u r e s by sub-sector were as follows (UNIDO, 1986b:70): (I) - 2.4% imported; (2) - 24%; (3) - 23%; (4) - 39%; (5) - 14%; (6) - 24%; (7) - 52%; (8) - 16%; (9) - 41%; (10) - 60%; (II) - 25%. 39. The complex linkages e x i s t i n g between the i n d u s t r i a l subsectors and between manufacturing and the other sectors of the economy are discussed most completely i n UNIDO, 1986b, e s p e c i a l l y i n Chapter 4 and Annexes A to F, pages 355 to 404. 40. C l e a r l y such an index, which records a c t u a l trade flows, cannot r e f l e c t trends i n e i t h e r p o t e n t i a l or suppressed demand. As during the UDI period one o b j e c t i v e of p o l i c y was to maintain balance of the current account of the balance of payments, import a l l o c a t i o n s were fine-tuned not to exceed more than marginally the value of export r e c e i p t s . This l e d to a lower l e v e l of imports than under a l e s s c o n t r o l l e d environment would have been achieved. I t would have been l i k e l y to have had the e f f e c t of i n f l a t i n g the s e l f - s u f f i c i e n c y index. 41. The 1982 data was produced by a team of United States consultants and graduate students under the leadership of a p r i v a t e independent consultant. Dr. Doris Jansen. As the raw data c o l l e c t e d was taken from Zimbabwe to the United States i t has subsequently not been p o s s i b l e to examine the raw data. See Jansen (1983) . 42. E s p e c i a l l y i f one concurs with the widely-held view that because the 1982 c a l c u l a t i o n s almost c e r t a i n l y use a s u b s t a n t i a l l y over-valued exchange rate (at l e a s t 15% too high) and because they f a i l to use shadow p r i c e s , they s i g n i f i c a n t l y underscore the degree of competitiveness. See R i d d e l l (1983), Stoneman (1985), IBRD (1987:66).
43. Regrettably the a v a i l a b l e data does not permit one to t e s t the hypothesis that Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector would have been even more competitive i n t e r n a t i o n a l l y i n the absence of these inward-oriented p o l i c i e s . 44. See e s p e c i a l l y pages 41 to 48. 45. For a good d i s c u s s i o n of both the t h e o r e t i c a l problems of DRC approaches and the s p e c i f i c problems of t h e i r use (and misuse i n Zimbabwe) see Stoneman (1988b>. 46. This includes cotton l i n t , ferro-chrome and s t e e l exports but excludes a l l other processed metal products. These f i g u r e s were derived from published Statement of External trade data and information provided by the Central S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e . 47. That i s , i n c l u d i n g s t e e l and ferrochrome exports; i f ferrochrome exports are excluded the proportionb r i s e s to 40%. For the 1980 data see R i d d e l l (1981a). 48. The apparent dichotomy shown i n the DRC i n d i c a t o r s of a r e l a t i v e l y high l e v e l i n t e r n a t i o n a l competitiveness and the lower l e v e l of competitiveness i n d i c a t e d by these plant adequacy f i g u r e s can, i n part, be explained by the bias of DRC data. As DRC data i s an i n d i c a t o r of i n t e r n a t i o n a l competitiveness comparing domestic with border p r i c e s and because Zimbabwe's borders are located f a r from the coast, the r e s p e c t i v e DRC f i g u r e s do not r e v e a l i n d u s t r i a l / s u b - s e c t o r a l competitiveness i n overseas markets which would have to take i n t o account the double disadvantages of Zimbabwe's land-locked geographical l o c a t i o n . 49. This means that the i n f l u e n c e of these r a t i o s o r i g i n a t i n g i n changes i n technology w i l l have been smaller. For an a n a l y s i s of c a p i t a l shortage see UNIDO (1986b:322 to 354). 50. The data i n these graphs provides two i n d i c a t o r s of r e a l MVA, one using the Central S t a t i s t i c a l O f f i c e ' s Volume Index, the other using Census of Production f i g u r e s to derive MVA, d e f l a t i n g these with the Gross National Income d e f l a t o r found i n National Accounts s t a t i s t i c s . While the pattern of change i s s i m i l a r over time, d i v e r g i n g most markedly f o r the 1983 data which i s l i k e l y to be a l t e r e d f o l l o w i n g r e v i s i o n of most recent d e f l a t o r s , the sub-sectoral data reveals a volume i n d i c a t o r some 6 to 12 points above the other index except f o r sub-sectors (2) and (6) where the p a t t e r n i s i n general reversed and sub-sector (10) when no systematic r e l a t i o n s h i p i s apparent. These two estimates are provided to i n d i c a t e both the d i f f e r e n c e s between them and hence the danger of r e l y i n g e x c l u s i v e l y on one i n d i c a t o r as a basis f o r a n a l y s i s of r e a l changes i n MVA. For a d i s c u s s i o n of some of the issues r a i s e d see Ramsay (1974b). 51. Averaging the 1982 and 1983 f i g u r e s gives the MVA/GDP r a t i o as 34.95 compared with 34.55 i n 1960.
Page 1 and 2:
WORKING PAPER 25 INDUSTRIALISATION
Page 3 and 4:
TABLE OF CONTENTS Page I. INTRODUCT
Page 5 and 6:
FIGURES 1. Ratio of Manufacturing V
Page 7 and 8:
manufacturing i n d u s t r y devel
Page 9 and 10:
sub-sector (9), Metals and Metal Pr
Page 11 and 12:
Figure 3. Manufacturing Volume Inde
Page 13 and 14:
i n v o l v e an i n c r e a s i n
Page 15 and 16:
involve an i n c r e a s i n g net
Page 17 and 18:
and 2, above, the f i r s t ten yea
Page 19 and 20:
Figure 5. Sources of Growth 1952/3
Page 21 and 22:
predominant source of growth has l
Page 23 and 24:
Figure 1952/53 to 1982/3. o. 0 0 0
Page 25 and 26:
period 1952/53 to 1982/83, Foodstuf
Page 27 and 28:
i-iz Additionally, i t i s also imp
Page 29 and 30:
Foodstuffs ( l ) t o a high of 60%
Page 31 and 32:
P r o t e c t i o n C o e f f i c i
Page 33 and 34:
s i g n i f i c a n t l y although
Page 35 and 36:
While these successes deserve due r
Page 37 and 38: marginal) r i s e i n the 1966 to 1
Page 39 and 40: drop i n imports required by the ma
Page 41 and 42: Beyond these measures, however, per
Page 43 and 44: The main d i f f i c u l t i e s f
Page 45 and 46: of a year or two, p r o d u c t i v
Page 47 and 48: i n Malawi^1, which produces implem
Page 49 and 50: emoving exchange c o n t r o l s ,
Page 51 and 52: f e r e n t i a l s and hence the d
Page 53 and 54: Figure 13. Index of Industrial Prod
Page 55 and 56: s u b s t a n t i a l export expans
Page 57 and 58: paid for by higher domestic food p
Page 59 and 60: f u r t h e r capacity so to expand
Page 61 and 62: p r i o r n o t i f i c a t i o n ,
Page 63 and 64: increase throughput and i n s t a l
Page 65 and 66: V. AGRO-INDUSTRIAL LINKAGES 5.1 Mac
Page 67 and 68: F i n a l l y the data from Figure
Page 69 and 70: mn, compared with $310 mn used by s
Page 71 and 72: paper and packaging (1%); f e r t i
Page 73 and 74: 6% f o r cotton. With the greater a
Page 75 and 76: y the a g r i c u l t u r a l secto
Page 77 and 78: VI. COMCLUSIONS 6.1 Some Missing El
Page 79 and 80: o v e r a l l , 34% of a l l the in
Page 81 and 82: In s p i t e of f o r e i g n excha
Page 83 and 84: (1986b:62-63). 7. S t r i c t l y s
Page 85 and 86: low f o r manufactured imports both
Page 87: 29. As gross output data f o r i r
Page 91 and 92: l e v e l s that both replacement i
Page 93 and 94: i n such a c t i v i t i e s , Zimb
Page 95 and 96: 94. In 1938/39, t o t a l food expo
Page 97 and 98: the l u c r a t i v e European (mos
Page 99 and 100: h i g h l i g h t e d the divergenc
Page 101 and 102: Clarke, D.G. (1980) Foreign Compani
Page 103: R i d d e l l , R.C. {1981a) "Zimba
show all

Zimbabwe - Overseas Development Institute

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?