Zimbabwe - Overseas Development Institute

23. For instance m J u l y 1987, A f r i c a n D i s t i l l e r s announced plans
to i n s t a l l new plant and technology with the o b j e c t i v e of
r e p l a c i n g a l l imported brandy with a l o c a l l y manufactured
product. This w i l l save over h a l f a m i l l i o n d o l l a r s annually. A
month e a r l i e r Hoechst, Zimbabwe announced the commissioning i n
September of a chemical plant which i s expected to save between
$1.4 mn and $1.5 mn a year through import s u b s t i t u t i o n . See The
F i n a n c i a l Gazette, 19 June 1987 and 24 J u l y 1987. These
i n i t i a t i v e s are f a r from exceptional; i t i s rare f o r an announcement
of s i m i l a r i n i t i a t i v e s not to appear i n the Zimbabwe press
on a monthly b a s i s .
24. S t r i c t l y speaking i t i s not " a l l " , f o r the trend i s reversed
for sub-sector (11) Miscellaneous. However t h i s grouping
contains both a rag-bag of i n d u s t r i e s and, a d d i t i o n a l l y , a
grouping whose separate i n d u s t r i e s have changed s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n
the course of the past 30 years.
25. While t h i s tends to f l y i n the face of a good deal of the
theory of the i n d u s t r i a l i s a t i o n process i n t h i r d world countries,
i n seeking an explanation f o r such a phenomenon one would also
need to look i n t o the respective p r i c e / p r o f i t a b i l i t y i n c e n t i v e s
i n the two periods.
26. For Foodstuffs ( l ) , t h e d i f f e r e n c e s were i n f a c t only
marginal. However the contrast even for Foodstuffs was greater
i n comparison with the other sub-sectors when the r e l a t i v e drop
i n export growth was very marked.
27. Cotton production was n e g l i g i b l e i n 1952/53 and was valued at
l e s s than $1 mn i n 1964/65; by the end of UDI, however,
production had r i s e n to $70 mn. Cotton l i n t exports were none
x i s t e n t i n 1952/53, and 1964/65 but had r i s e n to $43 mn by
1978/79. For t h e i r part, f e r r o - a l l o y exports were valued at a
mere $48,000 i n 1953, r i s i n g to a s t i l l small $3.4 mn i n $1964/65
and to a s u b s t a n t i a l $40 mn by the end of the UDI period {when,
i t should be added, d i f f i c u l t i e s of exporting during sanctions
had l e d to s t o c k p i l i n g ) .
23. The s t r u c t u r e of exports changed quite d r a m a t i c a l l y during
the e a r l y part of the UDI period, e s p e c i a l l y during the f i r s t few
years of UDI. For instance, the exports of unmanufactured tobacco
f e l l back from $94 mn i n 1965 to $17 mn i n 1966 and d i d not reach
t h e i r pre-UDI l e v e l s again (at current prices) u n t i l j u s t before
Independence. Also during UDI there was a more than f i v e f o l d
increase i n the current p r i c e value of a g r i c u l t u r a l exports and a
doubling of non-gold mineral exports. According to CSO f i g u r e s ,
manufactured exports rose s t e a d i l y a f t e r 1968 f o l l o w i n g an
immediate 25% f a l l i n t h e i r value at current p r i c e s . They then
increased s t e a d i l y and rose s l i g h t l y as a proportion of t o t a l
commodity exports. Thus the s t r a i g h t l i n e trend shown i n Table 5
does conceal some f l u c t u a t i o n s e s p e c i a l l y i n the three or four
years immediately f o l l o w i n g UDI.