Zimbabwe - Overseas Development Institute

29. As gross output data f o r i r o n and s t e e l , ferro-chrome and
cotton l i n t production i s not separately a v a i l a b l e , i t i s not
possible to provide data of the export to gross output r a t i o
without the i n c l u s i o n of these products.
30. Data compiled from the June 1987 e d i t i o n of the Quarterly
Digest of S t a t i s t i c s , Table 10.5
31. Trade data r e v e a l the f o l l o w i n g trend i n manufacturing to
t o t a l exports;
Manufactured Exports
As Proportion of a l l Commodity exports
1981 1985 1986
Manufactured exports 36.6 45.9 41.8
( i n c l u d i n g ferro-chrome
and cotton l i n t )
Less ferro-chrome and
cotton l i n t 16.2 19.1 17.7
Source: CSO, Export Data by Commodity and Country of Origin,1984
to 1986, (mimeo), 1988.
32. CZI, State of the Manufacturing Sector Triannual Survey For
The Month Period Ending 20 November 1987, Harare, CZI, 1988, p.13.
33. Hence r i s i n g manufactured imports over time would be a
p o s i t i v e not a negative i n d i c a t o r of development.
34. Aggregate data can give l i t t l e but a crude i n d i c a t i o n of
these expected trends because import data, e s p e c i a l l y of those
sub-sectors embracing intermediate and c a p i t a l goods, would
include both those imports of simpler intermediate products and
of f i n a l f i n i s h e d goods. Thus, f o r instance, a r i s e i n the
imports of "chemicals" might be occurring because of a r i s e i n
domestic demand f o r f i n a l chemical products with l i t t l e change i n
the s t r u c t u r e of the chemical i n d u s t r y or i t might be because of
a deepening of the productive base of the sector due to f u r t h e r
import s u b s t i t u t i o n and/or export expansion.
35. Sub-sectors (1),(2),(3),(4),(5) and (8) are c l a s s i f i e d as the
simpler, more consumption products while sub-sectors (6),(7),(9)
and (10) are grouped together as the more intermediate and
c a p i t a l goods sub-sectors.
36. There has, p e r i o d i c a l l y , been intense debate about whether
Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector i s a net user or earner of
f o r e i g n exchange f o r the country. At t h i s l e v e l , and f o r the
purposes of p o l i c y change, such debate i s s t e r i l e and of l i t t l e
value, both because f o r most countries attempting to i n d u s t r i a l i ­
se, t h e i r manufacturing sectors are net users of f o r e i g n exchange
f o r many decades (see Chenery et a l . 1987) and because a s t a t i c
a n a l y s i s of f o r e i g n exchange earning and absorption ignores an