Zimbabwe - Overseas Development Institute

marginal) r i s e i n the 1966 to 1973 period, a subsequent f a l l and
then f i n a l r i s e at the end of the decade of the 1970s''. There
i s , however, an observed, even i f only small, drop i n the r a t i o
from 1960 to 1963. What needs to be h i g h l i g h t e d , though, i s that
the almost h o r i z o n t a l l i n e c h a r a c t e r i s i n g the manufacturing
sector as a whole conceals some s u b s t a n t i a l sub-sectoral d i f ­
ferences. As we have now come to expect, sub-sectors (10) and
(6), e s p e c i a l l y , e x h i b i t e d a d e t e r i o r a t i n g performance, while
sub-sectors (1), (2), (4) and (9) a l l displayed a r i s i n g trend.
The greatest f a l l i n i t s MVA/GDP r a t i o , however, occurred i n the
t e x t i l e s sub-sector (3).
2.7 Seeking P r e l i m i n a r y Explanations
I t i s now time to step back from long term data a n a l y s i s of
the evolution of the manufacturing sector at the macro-level and
broaden d i s c u s s i o n so as to attempt to understand better not j u s t
what has happened but why i t has happened. Marrying the secular
expansion of Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector with p o l i t i c a l
developments and observing (not s u r p r i s i n g l y ) that the growth of
the sector has been c l o s e l y l i n k e d to the pattern of GDP growth
suggests that major p o l i t i c a l d i s r u p t i o n and uncertainty have
been both a cause of d i s r u p t i o n i n the progress of the manuf
a c t u r i n g sector and a prelude to f u r t h e r growth. On three
separate occasions - p r i o r to the Federation, p r i o r to UDI
( i n c l u d i n g the d i s r u p t i v e period surrounding the ending of the
Federation i n 1963) and p r i o r to Independence - i n d u s t r i a l growth
slowed and/or d e c l i n e d and then expanded, a l b e i t most h e s i ­
t a t i n g l y i n the post-Independence period. While on each occasion
the subsequent expansion which occurred was associated with a
r i s e i n aggregate growth, and so could be seen i n part as demandl
e d , very d i f f e r e n t i n f l u e n t i a l f a c t o r s came i n t o play i n each of
these periods.
The establishment of the Federation created a large and
protected market f o r Zimbabwe's manufactured products: manufactured
exports to Zambia and Malawi increased f i v e f o l d i n the
10 year period of the Federation and by 1964/65 accounted for 19%
of gross manufactured output compared with 11% i n 1953. But an
expanded domestic and captive "export" market were not the only
f a c t o r s favourable to expansion. Increased s e t t l e r immigration
during the post-war period, e s p e c i a l l y i n the l a t e 1940s and
e a r l y 1950s, brought a new i n j e c t i o n of s k i l l s to the economy
which, together with a r a p i d l y modernised i n f r a s t r u c t u r e and the
a l r e a d y - e s t a b l i s h e d i r o n and s t e e l works, added to the favourable
environment f o r expansion. This, together with the p o l i t i c a l
optimism of the e a r l y years of the Federation and the absence of
fears of p r i v a t e sector n a t i o n a l i s a t i o n or i n h i b i t i o n s to
generous p r i v a t e company p r o f i t r e p a t r i a t i o n , provided the
climate f o r a f a p i d i n f l o w of f o r e i g n p r i v a t e ( l a r g e l y B r i t i s h -
based) c a p i t a l . There were other external f a c t o r s which provided
a p o s i t i v e i n f l u e n c e for i n d u s t r i a l expansion at t h i s time. These
included the 1948 e l e c t i o n v i c t o r y by the National Party i n South
A f r i c a which p r e c i p i t a t e d some c a p i t a l f l i g h t northwards across
the Limpopo, the severing of Indian t i e s with South A f r i c a