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Germany's Free Democrats
The centre holds
Aug 13th 2009 | BERLIN AND HANOVER
From The Economist print edition
The liberal king-maker of German politics wants its old role back
GUIDO WESTERWELLE is garrulous on most topics. But one he avoids is what job he might have in
Germany’s next government. Would he be foreign minister, or perhaps run an economic superministry?
Voters care about what the government does, not how the spoils of office are shared out, he responds,
with the careful affability of a well-schooled politician.
Mr Westerwelle is cautious because the prospect is tantalisingly near. If the opinion polls are right, his
Free Democratic Party (FDP) may oust the Social Democratic Party (SPD) as the coalition partner of the
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after the election on September 27th. That would hugely change the
make-up and policies of Angela Merkel’s government.
Although a conservative, Ms Merkel has often leaned left as chancellor. Sometimes she has surrendered
grudgingly to her SPD partners, accepting a minimum wage in some areas. Or she has stolen their ideas
(eg, aid to working mothers). The pro-market FDP would nudge Ms Merkel towards tax cuts, a more
flexible labour market and, by German standards, daring changes in pensions and welfare. The election
may turn on whether voters are ready for such a liberal “black-yellow” coalition.
If they are, it would end a painfully long sojourn in opposition for the former king-maker of German
politics. The FDP was once part of almost every post-war government, as junior partner of either the CDU
or the SPD. But after its eviction by an SPD-Green coalition in 1998, pundits wondered if it would survive.
Its decision in 1982 to abandon an alliance with the SPD in favour of one with the CDU triggered an
exodus of left-leaning members. Mr Westerwelle, now 47, was one of the few who stayed. After he took
over the leadership in 2001 the FDP risked becoming a one-note party, obsessed with tax cuts and at the
beck and call of its rich clientele. Its civil-liberties wing was eclipsed.
This is changing. The leadership gap is being filled by a new generation, including Philipp Rösler, the 36-
year-old economics minister of Lower Saxony, born in Vietnam and adopted by German parents. Last year
he wrote a manifesto calling for the FDP to dedicate itself to “knowledge, tolerance and solidarity”. The
party has been too economy and tax-oriented, he says. His generation represents both economic
liberalism and social values, he adds.
Leading the FDP into a federal election for the third time, Mr Westerwelle accepts much of this. He now
mentions civil liberties almost as often as tax cuts. The FDP’s message is for the “whole nation”, he insists,
not just the better off. In 2005 8% of the unemployed voted for the party, not far short of its overall share
of 9.8%. The FDP’s social message sounds more like George Bush’s compassionate conservatism than
German social democracy. Mr Rösler thinks it is mainly up to society, not the state, to bring about
tolerance and solidarity. The FDP still believes that freedom outweighs equality and private initiative is
better than public activism.
The biggest surprise of the election campaign so far is how many voters seem to agree, despite
capitalism’s worst crisis since the 1930s. The polls predict that the FDP will win some 15% of the vote,
which would be its best-ever national score. Mr Westerwelle attributes this to the FDP’s “clarity” and
reputation for economic competence, but he has also been lucky. Ms Merkel’s leftward tilt has irked
liberals among CDU supporters. Their annoyance has turned to alarm with soaring debt, government bailouts
and threats of expropriation. By backing the FDP, they can rebuke the conservatives without opening
the door to a left-wing government.
The FDP would be the “tugboat” in a black-yellow government, says Mr Rösler. Its main demands are a
simpler tax system and lower rates for individuals, plus business-friendly changes to corporate tax.
Taxpayers would be expected to shoulder more of the burden of providing their own pensions and health
care. The FDP would replace a patchwork of welfare programmes with a simple “citizens’ payment”, which
could be cut if beneficiaries refused work. It proposes a “re-privatisation board” to reverse the state’s
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