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Germany's Free Democrats<br />

The centre holds<br />

Aug 13th 2009 | BERLIN AND HANOVER<br />

From The Economist print edition<br />

The liberal king-maker of German politics wants its old role back<br />

GUIDO WESTERWELLE is garrulous on most topics. But one he avoids is what job he might have in<br />

Germany’s next government. Would he be foreign minister, or perhaps run an economic superministry?<br />

Voters care about what <strong>the</strong> government does, not how <strong>the</strong> spoils of office are shared out, he responds,<br />

with <strong>the</strong> careful affability of a well-schooled politician.<br />

Mr Westerwelle is cautious because <strong>the</strong> prospect is tantalisingly near. If <strong>the</strong> opinion polls are right, his<br />

Free Democratic Party (FDP) may oust <strong>the</strong> Social Democratic Party (SPD) as <strong>the</strong> coalition partner of <strong>the</strong><br />

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) after <strong>the</strong> election on September 27th. That would hugely change <strong>the</strong><br />

make-up and policies of Angela Merkel’s government.<br />

Although a conservative, Ms Merkel has often leaned left as chancellor. Sometimes she has surrendered<br />

grudgingly to her SPD partners, accepting a minimum wage in some areas. Or she has stolen <strong>the</strong>ir ideas<br />

(eg, aid to working mo<strong>the</strong>rs). The pro-market FDP would nudge Ms Merkel towards tax cuts, a more<br />

flexible labour market and, by German standards, daring changes in pensions and welfare. The election<br />

may turn on whe<strong>the</strong>r voters are ready for such a liberal “black-yellow” coalition.<br />

If <strong>the</strong>y are, it would end a painfully long sojourn in opposition for <strong>the</strong> former king-maker of German<br />

politics. The FDP was once part of almost every post-war government, as junior partner of ei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> CDU<br />

or <strong>the</strong> SPD. But after its eviction by an SPD-Green coalition in 1998, pundits wondered if it would survive.<br />

Its decision in 1982 to abandon an alliance with <strong>the</strong> SPD in favour of one with <strong>the</strong> CDU triggered an<br />

exodus of left-leaning members. Mr Westerwelle, now 47, was one of <strong>the</strong> few who stayed. After he took<br />

over <strong>the</strong> leadership in 2001 <strong>the</strong> FDP risked becoming a one-note party, obsessed with tax cuts and at <strong>the</strong><br />

beck and call of its rich clientele. Its civil-liberties wing was eclipsed.<br />

This is changing. The leadership gap is being filled by a new generation, including Philipp Rösler, <strong>the</strong> 36-<br />

year-old economics minister of Lower Saxony, born in Vietnam and adopted by German parents. Last year<br />

he wrote a manifesto calling for <strong>the</strong> FDP to dedicate itself to “knowledge, tolerance and solidarity”. The<br />

party has been too economy and tax-oriented, he says. His generation represents both economic<br />

liberalism and social values, he adds.<br />

Leading <strong>the</strong> FDP into a federal election for <strong>the</strong> third time, Mr Westerwelle accepts much of this. He now<br />

mentions civil liberties almost as often as tax cuts. The FDP’s message is for <strong>the</strong> “whole nation”, he insists,<br />

not just <strong>the</strong> better off. In 2005 8% of <strong>the</strong> unemployed voted for <strong>the</strong> party, not far short of its overall share<br />

of 9.8%. The FDP’s social message sounds more like George Bush’s compassionate conservatism than<br />

German social democracy. Mr Rösler thinks it is mainly up to society, not <strong>the</strong> state, to bring about<br />

tolerance and solidarity. The FDP still believes that freedom outweighs equality and private initiative is<br />

better than public activism.<br />

The biggest surprise of <strong>the</strong> election campaign so far is how many voters seem to agree, despite<br />

capitalism’s worst crisis since <strong>the</strong> 1930s. The polls predict that <strong>the</strong> FDP will win some 15% of <strong>the</strong> vote,<br />

which would be its best-ever national score. Mr Westerwelle attributes this to <strong>the</strong> FDP’s “clarity” and<br />

reputation for economic competence, but he has also been lucky. Ms Merkel’s leftward tilt has irked<br />

liberals among CDU supporters. Their annoyance has turned to alarm with soaring debt, government bailouts<br />

and threats of expropriation. By backing <strong>the</strong> FDP, <strong>the</strong>y can rebuke <strong>the</strong> conservatives without opening<br />

<strong>the</strong> door to a left-wing government.<br />

The FDP would be <strong>the</strong> “tugboat” in a black-yellow government, says Mr Rösler. Its main demands are a<br />

simpler tax system and lower rates for individuals, plus business-friendly changes to corporate tax.<br />

Taxpayers would be expected to shoulder more of <strong>the</strong> burden of providing <strong>the</strong>ir own pensions and health<br />

care. The FDP would replace a patchwork of welfare programmes with a simple “citizens’ payment”, which<br />

could be cut if beneficiaries refused work. It proposes a “re-privatisation board” to reverse <strong>the</strong> state’s<br />

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