crisis-driven entanglement in banks and business. How far <strong>the</strong> conservatives will allow <strong>the</strong> FDP to tug <strong>the</strong>m is an open question. The CDU also favours tax cuts, though it seems in less of a hurry. Both parties are accused of making pie-in-<strong>the</strong>-sky promises, since <strong>the</strong>y also insist that <strong>the</strong> budget deficit must be cut. The best cure for deficits is growth, retorts <strong>the</strong> FDP; that will not happen without tax cuts. As <strong>the</strong> campaign heats up, Ms Merkel will probably shy away from <strong>the</strong> FDP’s radical ideas. Mr Westerwelle’s task will be to change her mind if and when he joins her cabinet. Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved. -67-
Turkey and Russia Old rivals, new partners Aug 13th 2009 | ANKARA From The Economist print edition An alliance of convenience that arouses some suspicion in <strong>the</strong> West THROUGH <strong>the</strong> long Ottoman era, Turks and Russians fought many bloody wars. In modern times Turkey guarded NATO’s sou<strong>the</strong>rn flank against Soviet mischief. “The Russians are treacherous” is a popular Turkish adage. But one would hardly have guessed it as <strong>the</strong> two countries’ prime ministers, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, splashily signed a raft of agreements in a ceremony in Ankara on August 6th. AFP “Treacherous” was in fact <strong>the</strong> word some applied to <strong>the</strong> deal with Russia’s Gazprom to use Turkish territorial waters in <strong>the</strong> Black Sea for a gas pipeline to Europe. The planned South Stream pipeline will bypass Ukraine, through which 80% of Russia’s gas exports to Europe now flow. Russia has repeatedly turned off <strong>the</strong> taps in disputes with Ukraine, leaving millions of Europeans in <strong>the</strong> cold. To reduce dependence on Russia, <strong>the</strong> European Union has long promoted a pipeline to <strong>the</strong> Caspian, Nabucco, which Turkey also signed up for in July. So whose side is it on? The answer is simple: Turkey’s. Sitting at <strong>the</strong> crossroads of <strong>the</strong> energy-rich Friends or foes? Middle East and <strong>the</strong> former Soviet Union, Turkey has unique leverage as a transit hub for gas. And it is unabashedly using <strong>the</strong> energy card to promote its membership of <strong>the</strong> EU. This requires co-operation with Russia. In exchange for backing South Stream, Turkey won Russian support for an oil pipeline from <strong>the</strong> Black Sea port of Samsun to <strong>the</strong> Ceyhan terminal on <strong>the</strong> Mediterranean. It is also said to have cajoled Russia into lowering <strong>the</strong> price for a nuclear-power station. Nabucco and South Stream are not rivals, <strong>the</strong>y are complementary, insists Turkey’s foreign minister, Ahmet Davutoglu. The same might be said of Turkey and Russia <strong>the</strong>mselves. With <strong>the</strong> end of <strong>the</strong> cold war <strong>the</strong>ir interests sometimes coincide. Both backed <strong>the</strong> war in Afghanistan but were viscerally opposed to America’s invasion of Iraq. Turkey’s image as America’s poodle was erased in March 2003 when its parliament refused to let American troops cross Turkish soil to open a second front against Saddam Hussein. A bigger test of Turkey’s stance came in <strong>the</strong> Russia-Georgia war of August 2008. Turkey carefully implemented <strong>the</strong> Montreux Convention, which governs traffic through <strong>the</strong> Bosporus, so only a handful of American warships could enter <strong>the</strong> Black Sea. Nei<strong>the</strong>r Turkey nor Russia wants <strong>the</strong> Americans meddling in <strong>the</strong>ir back pond. What do <strong>the</strong> Americans think? Ian Lesser, an analyst at <strong>the</strong> German Marshall Fund in Washington, argues that for now <strong>the</strong>y are not fussed. “The [Obama] administration is far more sensitive to what Turkey does with Iran.” Turkey’s overtures to Russia are seen in <strong>the</strong> context of a new foreign policy that involves engaging with all its neighbours. Europe can hardly cast stones ei<strong>the</strong>r, as it remains divided over Russia. Italy’s prime minister, Silvio Berlusconi, was present in Ankara because ENI, an Italian energy company, is involved in <strong>the</strong> South Stream deal. Russia is Turkey’s biggest single trading partner and provides 68% of its gas. Turkish construction firms are active all over Russia. Millions of Russian tourists flock to Turkish resorts every year. Antalya, on <strong>the</strong> Mediterranean, is home to some 15,000 Russians, many of <strong>the</strong>m women married to Turkish men. They have <strong>the</strong>ir own Russian-language newspaper and now want an Orthodox church. “Russian women educated Turkish men in love,” says Ali Ozgenturk, who made “Balalayka”, a film about Russian prostitutes in Turkey. Mr Putin and Mr Erdogan get on well. Both are macho, sporty and prone to authoritarian instincts. Turkey is also one of <strong>the</strong> few countries with which today’s Russia feels comfortable, a pole in its preferred multipolar system, in which big countries pursue independent policies. Turkey even appears to have -68-
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KAL's cartoon Aug 13th 2009 From Th
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