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which it is currently embroiled in Afghanistan. Over the summer, as soldiers have died in Helmand,
arguments have raged at home about the treatment and equipment they receive. For the first time the
political consensus about Britain’s involvement in the conflict has seemed strained. Beneath those
wrangles lies a broader anxiety over Britain’s place in the world: about whether it should continue to
pursue a global military role, or cast off such aspirations as post-imperial hubris and reconcile itself to a
humbler status.
Harmania and Megalo-Mandelson
Behind all these quandaries, of course, lies the summer’s basic political mystery. By this time next year,
who will have responsibility for resolving them?
The government has staged its usual summer pantomime in recent weeks, the one in which the prime
minister pretends to take a holiday, leaving others to mind the Downing Street shop. When Tony Blair
jetted off to a paradisal beach or palazzo, the cameo mostly fell to John Prescott, his comic sidekick.
Under Gordon Brown, first Harriet Harman, the leader of the Commons, and now Lord Mandelson, the
formidable First Secretary, have filled in. Both have supplied the necessary entertainment, Ms Harman
with some opportunistic grandstanding, Lord Mandelson by starting his stint while still in Corfu, then
reviving his feud with George Osborne, whom he bumped into on the same island last year (with
uncomfortable results for the shadow chancellor).
The real ambiguity, however, is not over who is running the country now, but who will do so after the
impending general election. David Cameron, the leader of the Conservatives, is much the likeliest
candidate. But the prospect of a Tory victory carries further unknowns. How, precisely, would the Tories
rectify the fiscal position, as they frequently but vaguely pledge to? (Mr Osborne was at it again this week,
making a provocative but sketchy speech on the savings to be made through public-service reform.) How
would it feel, after a gap of 13 years, to have a Conservative government? What sort of society would it
fashion?
The annual round of party conferences, beginning next month, will in effect mark the launch of a long,
long election campaign. The Tories will have to supply a more comprehensive prospectus than they have
so far. But the summer months, as they generally are, have been a hiatus in serious politics, before the
brutal end-game. For now the country knows the questions but has heard few answers. It is more uneasy
and bemused about the coming political showdown than eager and excited.
In fact, even the customary vagaries of the British summer have this year been peculiarly disorienting.
First, England’s cricketers vanquished the visiting Australians; not long afterwards the Australians inflicted
a humiliating rout on their prematurely lionised hosts. The weather, so balmy in June, reverted to rainy
type in July, confounding predictions of a prolonged scorcher, leaving the meteorologists red-faced and
the skin of stay-at-home Britons pallid. The oscillating sunshine and drizzle have epitomised the mood in
the country they fall on. For Britain, this has been a summer of rumbling doubt and confusion.
Economist.com/blogs/bagehot
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