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The politics of defence
The thinning red line
Aug 13th 2009
From The Economist print edition
Military spending cuts are likely under the next government, whoever forms it
Reuters
An obscure future for the armed forces
BOTH Bob Ainsworth, the defence secretary, and Liam Fox, his Conservative opposite number, have
pledged to hold a strategic review of defence after the next election. When the last one was carried out, in
1998, taxes were cascading into the Treasury; they are now drying up. The armed forces, now losing
troops frequently in Afghanistan, were yet to be tested in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, let alone by the long
wars that followed farther east.
Shaping a defence policy amid austerity will be particularly tough for Labour. Its relations with the forces
have suffered as the military has been given bigger burdens without matching resources. A spell in
opposition could revive the historical split between Labour’s hawks and doves. A party with a diminished
vision for Britain’s role in the world, and the military spending needed to fulfil it, could emerge.
The old Labour right, with its no-nonsense attitude to national security, once harboured big beasts such as
Ernest Bevin, the post-war foreign secretary who took Britain into NATO, and George (now Lord)
Robertson, who oversaw the last defence review. But they are rare now. Younger “Blairite” MPs share the
former prime minister’s ardour for domestic reform and, at a push, Europe, but not his fighting zeal.
Yet neither the Tories’ old affinity with the forces, nor the hawkishness of Mr Fox and George Osborne, the
shadow chancellor, justify optimism among defence chiefs about a putative Conservative government.
David Cameron, the Tory leader, has not exempted defence spending from the coming austerity push. The
most recent Tory government shrank it, even before the Cold War ended. And the party may only get
away with cutting overall spending if it takes the axe to traditional Tory causes as well as softer targets.
Not even the Liberal Democrats, Westminster’s peaceniks, support nuclear disarmament. Under the
Tories, the deterrent is likely to continue to take the form of the Trident submarine fleet. But savings
could be found, most radically by operating three rather than four vessels. Pay, which in recent years has
risen more than the Ministry of Defence had anticipated, may also be targeted. Malcolm Chalmers of the
Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, says even a modest cut to planned pay could yield
significant savings. But stinginess towards soldiers is politically risky, as recent rows over compensation to
wounded servicemen have shown.
Thanks to the ministry’s reputation for waste, cuts in procurement could be comparatively uncontroversial.
On August 6th ministers were forced to deny that an official report exposing profligacy in defence
procurement, which was due to be published last month, had been suppressed. But identifying projects to
scrap or shrink is tough. Delaying purchases often generates long-term costs. Some projects, such as the
two new aircraft carriers and the third tranche of the Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft, may be too far
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