Conservatives will be fighting over a miserable inheritance. Copyright © 2009 The Economist Newspaper and The Economist Group. All rights reserved. -73-
The politics of defence The thinning red line Aug 13th 2009 From The Economist print edition Military spending cuts are likely under <strong>the</strong> next government, whoever forms it Reuters An obscure future for <strong>the</strong> armed forces BOTH Bob Ainsworth, <strong>the</strong> defence secretary, and Liam Fox, his Conservative opposite number, have pledged to hold a strategic review of defence after <strong>the</strong> next election. When <strong>the</strong> last one was carried out, in 1998, taxes were cascading into <strong>the</strong> Treasury; <strong>the</strong>y are now drying up. The armed forces, now losing troops frequently in Afghanistan, were yet to be tested in Kosovo and Sierra Leone, let alone by <strong>the</strong> long wars that followed far<strong>the</strong>r east. Shaping a defence policy amid austerity will be particularly tough for Labour. Its relations with <strong>the</strong> forces have suffered as <strong>the</strong> military has been given bigger burdens without matching resources. A spell in opposition could revive <strong>the</strong> historical split between Labour’s hawks and doves. A party with a diminished vision for Britain’s role in <strong>the</strong> world, and <strong>the</strong> military spending needed to fulfil it, could emerge. The old Labour right, with its no-nonsense attitude to national security, once harboured big beasts such as Ernest Bevin, <strong>the</strong> post-war foreign secretary who took Britain into NATO, and George (now Lord) Robertson, who oversaw <strong>the</strong> last defence review. But <strong>the</strong>y are rare now. Younger “Blairite” MPs share <strong>the</strong> former prime minister’s ardour for domestic reform and, at a push, Europe, but not his fighting zeal. Yet nei<strong>the</strong>r <strong>the</strong> Tories’ old affinity with <strong>the</strong> forces, nor <strong>the</strong> hawkishness of Mr Fox and George Osborne, <strong>the</strong> shadow chancellor, justify optimism among defence chiefs about a putative Conservative government. David Cameron, <strong>the</strong> Tory leader, has not exempted defence spending from <strong>the</strong> coming austerity push. The most recent Tory government shrank it, even before <strong>the</strong> Cold War ended. And <strong>the</strong> party may only get away with cutting overall spending if it takes <strong>the</strong> axe to traditional Tory causes as well as softer targets. Not even <strong>the</strong> Liberal Democrats, Westminster’s peaceniks, support nuclear disarmament. Under <strong>the</strong> Tories, <strong>the</strong> deterrent is likely to continue to take <strong>the</strong> form of <strong>the</strong> Trident submarine fleet. But savings could be found, most radically by operating three ra<strong>the</strong>r than four vessels. Pay, which in recent years has risen more than <strong>the</strong> Ministry of Defence had anticipated, may also be targeted. Malcolm Chalmers of <strong>the</strong> Royal United Services Institute, a think-tank, says even a modest cut to planned pay could yield significant savings. But stinginess towards soldiers is politically risky, as recent rows over compensation to wounded servicemen have shown. Thanks to <strong>the</strong> ministry’s reputation for waste, cuts in procurement could be comparatively uncontroversial. On August 6th ministers were forced to deny that an official report exposing profligacy in defence procurement, which was due to be published last month, had been suppressed. But identifying projects to scrap or shrink is tough. Delaying purchases often generates long-term costs. Some projects, such as <strong>the</strong> two new aircraft carriers and <strong>the</strong> third tranche of <strong>the</strong> Eurofighter Typhoon aircraft, may be too far -74-
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