Than 1000 International Scientists Dissent Over Man-Made Global ...

"Claims that the Earth will get warmer have no more credence than saying that it will get
colder." According to Armstrong, the author of Long-Range Forecasting, the most
frequently cited book on forecasting methods, "Of 89 principles [of forecasting], the [UN]
IPCC violated 72." Armstrong and Green also critiqued the Associated Press for hyping
climate fears in 2007. "Dire consequences have been predicted to arise from warming of
the Earth in coming decades of the 21st century. Enormous sea level rise is one of the more
dramatic forecasts. According to the AP's Borenstein, such sea-level forecasts were experts'
judgments on what will happen," Armstrong and Green wrote to EPW on September 23,
2007. "As shown in our analysis, experts' forecasts have no validity in situations
characterized by high complexity, high uncertainty, and poor feedback. To date we are
unaware of any forecasts of sea levels that adhere to proper [scientific] forecasting
methodology and our quick search on Google Scholar came up short," Armstrong and
Green explained. "Media outlets should be clear when they are reporting on scientific work
and when they are reporting on the opinions held by some scientists. Without scientific
support for their forecasting methods, the concerns of scientists should not be used as a
basis for public policy," they concluded. (LINK) & (LINK) Armstrong and Green also
co-authored a November 29, 2007 paper with Harvard astrophysicist Dr. Willie Soon
which found that polar bear extinction predictions violate "scientific forecasting
procedures." The study analyzed the methodology behind key polar bear population
predictions and found that one of the two key reports in support of listing the bears had
"extrapolated nearly 100 years into the future on the basis of only five years data - and data
for these years were of doubtful validity." Both key reports violated critical evidence-based
principles of forecasting, rendering their forecasts invalid, according to the report. The
study concluded that "experts' predictions, unaided by evidence-based forecasting
procedures, should play no role in this decision [to list polar bear as endangered]. Without
scientific forecasts of a substantial decline of the polar bear population and of net benefits
from feasible policies arising from listing polar bears, a decision to list polar bears as
threatened or endangered would be irresponsible." (LINK)
UK Professor Emeritus of Biogeography Philip Stott of the University of London
ridiculed the notion of a scientific "consensus" on catastrophic man-made global warming.
"In the early 20th century, 95% of scientists believed in eugenics. Science does not
progress by consensus, it progresses by falsification and by what we call paradigm shifts,"
Stott said on March 14, 2007 during a live debate with other scientists in New York City.
"And can I remind everybody that IPCC that we keep talking about, very honestly admits
that we know very little about 80% of the factors behind climate change. Well let's use an
engineer; I don't think I'd want to cross Brooklyn Bridge if it were built by an engineer who
only understood 80% of the forces on that bridge," Stott said. He noted how ridiculous
political leaders act when it comes to global warming." Angela Merkel, the German
chancellor, [and] my own good Prime Minister (UK's Tony Blair), for whom I voted -- let
me emphasize -- arguing in public two weeks ago as to who in ‗Annie get the gun style'
could produce the best temperature. ‗I could do two degrees C said Angela [Merkel].' ‗No,
I could only do three [degrees] said Tony [Blair].' Stand back a minute, those are
politicians telling you that they can control climate to a degree Celsius," Stott said. (LINK)
Swedish Geologist Dr. Wibjorn Karlen, professor emeritus of the Department of
Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology at Stockholm University, critiqued the
Associated Press for hyping climate fears. "Another of these hysterical views of our
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