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Fail to Prepare, then Prepare to Fail 4.1. Comparative map of Cuba showing 27 percent loss of landmass as a result of the 5-m rise in relative sea levels from 6000 BP to present. Map by Jago Cooper. Precipitation Precipitation change has been argued to be an important factor in creating sudden environmental change, and there are many worldwide discussions of the impacts on past human populations (Gill et al. 2007). Unfortunately, 97
Jago Cooper the Caribbean lacks the detailed precipitation records found in other regions, but understanding its climatic context enables the exposure and discussion of human vulnerability to precipitation variation. Much work still needs to be done to reconstruct and understand precipitation change effectively (Broecker 2009), but it is clear that changes in the Atlantic climate system affect precipitation rates in the Caribbean. Fine-grained reconstructions of precipitation change in the Caribbean require additional research; but existing data indicate fluctuating regional precipitation rates over time, with a drier period beginning 10,500 BP, a wetter period beginning 7000 BP, and an intense dryer period beginning 3200 BP (Higuera-Gundy et al. 1999: 159; Hodell et al. 1991; Nyberg et al. 2001). These broad chronologies for precipitation variation based on lake cores and archaeobotanical evidence are too limited to provide a comprehensive regional picture, but the evidence does suggest the potential importance of such changes to the local environments of the islands of the Caribbean (Siegel et al. 2001). However, an understanding of Caribbean communities’ vulnerability to precipitation variability requires a more nuanced understanding of the different spatial and temporal scales at which hazards can have an impact. Paleoprecipitation variation in the Caribbean includes low-frequency regional impacts on an inter-millennial scale that would have substantially changed the terrestrial ecology of the region, but at the same time there would have been cycles of highfrequency, inter-annual impacts on local environments that would have had a more direct and noticeable impact for human communities (Nyberg et al. 2001). Floods and droughts are often assumed to be the main hazards generated by precipitation change, but perhaps we should also consider the hazard of instability or unpredictability as a key threat for Precolumbian communities. The high variability of the frequency, seasonality, and reliability of precipitation created by the exposure to unstable Atlantic weather systems created dramatic regional and local climatic instability and variable precipitation rates (Haug et al. 2001). This hazard of instability has been well established in previous discussions, particularly in respect to the origins of agriculture (Bettinger, Richerson, and Boyd 2009; Rosen in press), and this hazard appears to have been important for the peoples of the Caribbean. While broad regional trends in precipitation variation from lake cores indicate periods of drier and wetter conditions, it is important to consider the micro-scale of shorter-term and more locally specific variation. These smaller-scale impacts therefore have to be examined locally using relevant paleoclimatic data on a case-by-case basis. Hurricanes Hurricanes represent some of the most dramatic and well-publicized hazards Caribbean populations face. The production of intense low pressures in 98
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Surviving Sudden Environmental Chan
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© 2012 by the University Press of
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Contents Chapter 5. Collation, Corr
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Thomas H. McGovern Maine, on Octobe
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Thomas H. McGovern as this excellen
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Thomas H. McGovern McGovern, Thomas
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Chapter Abstracts eruptions, earthq
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Chapter Abstracts this is so becaus
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Chapter Abstracts and concomitant f
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Chapter Abstracts Chapter 8 Long-Te
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Surviving Sudden Environmental Chan
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper The m
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper techn
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper The b
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper or mi
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper tial
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper to co
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper first
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper and-c
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper Burto
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Ben Fitzhugh enhanced support for r
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Ben Fitzhugh islands, which are als
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Ben Fitzhugh and millet farming sub
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Ben Fitzhugh 1.2. Eruption of Saryc
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Ben Fitzhugh a greater proportion o
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Ben Fitzhugh but reoccupation proce
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Ben Fitzhugh Large storms pass thro
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Ben Fitzhugh densely populated regi
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Ben Fitzhugh of sustainable settlem
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Ben Fitzhugh Blaikie, P., T. Cannon
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Ben Fitzhugh Marquardt, W. H. 1988
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Ben Fitzhugh Understanding Hazards,
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Payson Sheets a society, or which c
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Page 85 and 86: Payson Sheets successful mitigation
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Page 89 and 90: Payson Sheets Understanding Hazards
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Emily McClung de Tapia the importan
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Emily McClung de Tapia remains, sug
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Emily McClung de Tapia 6.3. Erosion
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Emily McClung de Tapia construction
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Emily McClung de Tapia indigenous p
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6.4. Flooding of the major highway
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Emily McClung de Tapia D. Qin, M. M
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Emily McClung de Tapia Lounejeva-Ba
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Emily McClung de Tapia Rivera-Uria,
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Seven Domination and Resilience in
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Domination and Resilience in Bronze
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Nelson et al. Mexico (figure 8.1) t
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Nelson et al. what (Carpenter et al
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Nelson et al. 8.2. Images that illu
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Nelson et al. Specifically, we aske
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Nelson et al. its value in making a
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Nelson et al. 8.4). However, an ext
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Nelson et al. floodwater gave way t
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Nelson et al. 8.6. A Classic Mimbre
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Nelson et al. 3. Isolation can cont
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Nelson et al. Folke, Carl 2006 Resi
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Nelson et al. Tiempos Prehispánico
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Nelson et al. Turney, Omar 1929 Pre
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Nine Social Evolution, Hazards, and
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Social Evolution, Hazards, and Resi
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ten Global Environmental Change, Re
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Global Environmental Change, Resili
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Contributors David A. Abbott Arizon
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Contributors Jeffrey Quilter Harvar
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Index Bárdarbunga volcano, 72 Barr
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Index Hazards, 3, 6, 42, 92, 106, 2
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Index Paramushir Island, 25 Pastora
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Index social-ecological structure,
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