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Collation, Correlation, and Causation in the Prehistory of Coastal Peru
5.5. Population, risk, and complexity on the Peruvian coast, 13,000–8000 BP (years
before present/AD 1950). Population curve drawn from Cook (1981), Moseley
(2001), Rick (1987), and Wilson (1988) (see text). Risk is based on frequency/
intensity of El Niño, from Rein et al. (2005) and Sandweiss et al. (2007).
Complexity is based on the authors’ experience and the general literature (e.g.,
Moseley 2001; Richardson 1994). Figure drafted by Kurt Rademaker.
• From ca. 8000 to 6000 cal BP, few or no El Niño events took place,
coastal waters were seasonally warmer than present in northern Peru,
and there was probably seasonal rainfall north of 10˚S. At this time,
population began to grow but remained low overall. Complexity
increased as the first sedentary villages were founded. Risk was minimal
(figure 5.6).
• From ca. 6,000 to 3,000 years ago, El Niño events were strong but infrequent;
coastal waters were cool along all of Peru. Complexity increased
with the onset of large-scale monument building, evidence of different
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