free download - University Press of Colorado

Charles L. Redman
The new insights archaeological case studies offer are particularly welcome
in that global environmental change is one of the primary threats to society in
the twenty-first century. Because the impact of climate change can be expected
to be a gradual process that, on average, may not change as much as interannual
or interregional variability, most global changes will not be obvious to
the casual observer. However, predictions are that we will best sense the effects
of anthropogenic climate change through the occurrence of more frequent
and extreme “natural events.” For example, the gradual increase in atmospheric
temperature will not be noticeable on a year-to-year basis (or at least separable
from normal inter-annual fluctuations), yet it is likely that the frequency and
intensity of heat waves impacting cities around the world will increase and significantly
affect their populations. Heat waves are already the natural disaster
responsible for the greatest number of fatalities worldwide, and we can expect
that number to grow in the coming decades. Climate change will also alter
regional precipitation patterns, leading to more frequent and intense flooding
in some regions and more frequent and intense droughts in others. These
changes, in turn, will exacerbate patterns of erosion and be responsible for
mudslides, dust storms, and other hazards. It is expected that as ocean waters
warm, storms such as hurricanes will increase in intensity, leading to greater
wind damage and coastal flooding.
The impacts of global climate change will most likely be experienced as
the kinds of natural hazards that have been happening regionally since prehistoric
times, but they can be expected to occur more frequently and to be
more intense. Hence, the way people have organized themselves in the face
of regional natural hazards or sudden environmental changes in the past provides
insight into what the key variables will be in organizing ourselves to
recognize and deal with global environmental change in the future. Several
observations reported in this volume’s chapters have revealed patterns in the
past that should help structure contemporary thinking. A theme that runs
through almost all of the chapters is that environmental change and natural
hazards are not disasters in themselves. As Jago Cooper points out, the recognition
and impact of hazards on local societies are culturally contingent
and are very much shaped by the ecological knowledge of members of the
society. Several of the authors indicate that the way these hazards are culturally
constructed and conveyed is directly related to their frequency of occurrence
and impact in the recent past. More frequent and more sudden hazards
are often prominently encoded in local knowledge and are more likely to be
acted upon in precautionary ways Cooper and Payson Sheets describe in the
volume’s introduction.
Geography is also a key factor in understanding human attitudes and adaptations
to potential natural hazards. Although volcanic activity is not usually
associated with anthropogenically caused global environmental change, it is
238