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Long-Term Vulnerability and Resilience 8.1. Map of the southwestern United States and northern Mexico showing the areas encompassed by the six cases. Map by Matthew A. Peeples. of social-ecological systems (Adger 2006; Folke 2006; Janssen and Ostrom 2006; Janssen et al. 2006; Young et al. 2006). Resilience research explores multiple, open, interacting systems that move between states of stability and transformation (Holling 1973; Holling and Gunderson 2002). Vulnerability research, originating in geography and the study of natural hazards (Adger 2006), focuses on the attributes of people or groups that enable them to cope with the impact of disturbances. Unfortunately, it is impossible to generate “absolute resilience or robustness” in social-ecological systems. Rather, we must ask, resilience of what to 199
Nelson et al. what (Carpenter et al. 2001) Any strategies humans deploy to cope with disturbances introduce fundamental tradeoffs. To develop effective coping strategies in a rapidly changing world, we must recognize that a decision to increase resilience in one dimension is likely to increase vulnerabilities in another (Anderies et al. 2007). In two of the examples described in this chapter, we address human vulnerability to climatic variability and change, specifically focused on precipitation and stream flow, and we explore tradeoffs. We contribute to an emerging literature that focuses on robustness-vulnerability trade offs to understand how social-ecological systems organize, cope with variation, and change (Anderies 2006; Anderies et al. 2007; Anderies, Walker, and Kinzig 2006; Janssen, Anderies, and Ostrom 2007). In the third example we specifically focus on how human social configurations can create conditions of vulnerability that influence the way people experience disturbances, climatic changes, and variability. Following the theme of this book, we view low precipitation and variable precipitation conditions as potential “hazards” within the southwestern United States and northern Mexico to which people may be or may become vulnerable. Hazards can be thought of as “threats to a system and the consequences they produce” (Turner et al. 2003: 8074). We outline features of climate conditions in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico that may be potential hazards, and we explore the role of social configurations in creating hazards and preventing people from responding effectively. Advantages of a Long-Term Perspective We use data sequences that span millennium-long timescales in the southwestern United States and northern Mexico to assess how human societies and ecosystems interact. In this region of the world, low precipitation and variable precipitation are challenges or potential “hazards” for human occupation today and have been throughout human history. For farmers, the levels of precipitation in this region of the world are highly variable temporally and spatially and typically fall below the minimum needs of many domesticated crops (especially maize, the primary cultigen). The potential “hazards” of low precipitation and uncertain timing of precipitation can create conditions of famine whose timing can be uncertain. But the experience of potential hazards—whether they are realized and experienced as hazardous conditions—depends on a variety of social factors, from population size to the forms of physical infrastructure and social institutions. People address climatic challenges such as low and variable precipitation in various ways, from diversifying their use of resources and using a range of environmental settings, to building infrastructure (such as irrigation systems) to control the distribution of water, to settling in areas of high natural water table, which are rare (Spielmann et al. in press). 200
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Surviving Sudden Environmental Chan
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© 2012 by the University Press of
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Contents Chapter 5. Collation, Corr
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Thomas H. McGovern Maine, on Octobe
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Thomas H. McGovern as this excellen
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Thomas H. McGovern McGovern, Thomas
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Chapter Abstracts eruptions, earthq
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Chapter Abstracts this is so becaus
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Chapter Abstracts and concomitant f
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Chapter Abstracts Chapter 8 Long-Te
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Surviving Sudden Environmental Chan
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper The m
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper techn
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper The b
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper or mi
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper tial
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper to co
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper first
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper and-c
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Payson Sheets and Jago Cooper Burto
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Ben Fitzhugh enhanced support for r
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Ben Fitzhugh islands, which are als
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Ben Fitzhugh and millet farming sub
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Ben Fitzhugh 1.2. Eruption of Saryc
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Ben Fitzhugh a greater proportion o
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Ben Fitzhugh but reoccupation proce
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Ben Fitzhugh Large storms pass thro
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Ben Fitzhugh densely populated regi
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Ben Fitzhugh of sustainable settlem
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Ben Fitzhugh Blaikie, P., T. Cannon
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Ben Fitzhugh Marquardt, W. H. 1988
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Ben Fitzhugh Understanding Hazards,
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Payson Sheets a society, or which c
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Payson Sheets 2.1. Map of Mexico an
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Payson Sheets 2.3. Ilopango volcani
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Payson Sheets area such as El Salva
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Payson Sheets The Barriles society
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Payson Sheets 2.7. Cuicuilco, highl
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Payson Sheets communities around th
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Payson Sheets heading out to sea af
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Payson Sheets successful mitigation
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Payson Sheets Michels, Joe 1979 A H
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Payson Sheets Understanding Hazards
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three Black Sun, High Flame, and Fl
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood th
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood fa
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood Bo
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood et
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood Te
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood In
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood Th
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood 3.
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood Ac
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood Ha
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Black Sun, High Flame, and Flood Un
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Jago Cooper The absence of other ca
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Jago Cooper causality and the relat
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Jago Cooper scale case studies to c
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Jago Cooper the Caribbean lacks the
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Jago Cooper record of hurricane lan
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Jago Cooper but at this stage the f
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Jago Cooper paleoenvironmental sett
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Jago Cooper Summary and Future Rese
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Jago Cooper Beck, Warren J., Jacque
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Jago Cooper Goudie, Andrew 2006 The
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Jago Cooper Redman, Charles L., and
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Jago Cooper Understanding Hazards,
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Five Collation, Correlation, and Ca
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Collation, Correlation, and Causati
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Emily McClung de Tapia 6.1. Prehisp
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Emily McClung de Tapia 6.2. Locatio
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Page 250 and 251: Social Evolution, Hazards, and Resi
Page 262 and 263: ten Global Environmental Change, Re
Page 264 and 265: Global Environmental Change, Resili
Page 270 and 271: Contributors David A. Abbott Arizon
Page 272: Contributors Jeffrey Quilter Harvar
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Index Bárdarbunga volcano, 72 Barr
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Index Hazards, 3, 6, 42, 92, 106, 2
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Index Paramushir Island, 25 Pastora
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Index social-ecological structure,
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