Prospects of the ICT sector in Greece

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Study of the ICT sector in Greece: Current Situation and Future Trends Deliverable 14: Prospects of the ICT sector in Greece-policy implications Table 2: Main Economic Indicators (ΕΕ-25, ΕΕ-12, Greece) ΕΕ-25 ΕΕ-12 Ελλάδα 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 2004 2005 2006 2007 GDP 2,4 1,7 2,8 2,4 2,0 1,4 2,6 2,1 4,7 3,7 3,8 3,7 Consumption 2,0 1,5 2,2 1,9 1,5 1,4 2,0 1,6 4,7 3,7 3,4 3,2 Total Investment 3,1 3,0 4,9 3,6 2,3 2,5 4,3 3,0 5,7 -1,4 6,3 6,2 Employment 0,7 0,9 1,4 1,1 0,7 0,7 1,4 1,2 2,9 1,3 1,4 1,3 Unemployment rate (% labour force) 9,1 8,8 8,0 7,6 8,9 8,6 8,0 7,7 10,5 9,8 9,3 8,9 Inflation 2,1 2,2 2,3 2,3 2,1 2,2 2,2 2,1 3,0 3,5 3,3 3,3 Government Balance (% GDP) -2,7 -2,3 -2,0 -1,6 -2,8 -2,4 -2,0 -1,5 -7,8 -5,2 -2,6 -2,6 Government Dept (% GDP) 62,4 63,3 62,5 61,4 69,7 70,6 69,4 68,0 108,5 107,5 104,8 101,0 Current account Balance (% ΑΕΠ) 0,3 -0,4 -0,5 -0,4 0,8 0,0 -0,1 0,1 -9,5 -9,2 -8,5 -8,0 Πηγή: European Commission, Economic Forecasts, Autumn 2006. The European Commission estimates an increase of the economic activity for 2006 and 2007 at a rate of more than 2%. These forecasts are based on the estimations for an even higher domestic demand and on expectations for a positive impact of the external sector in the European economy. The satisfactory financial situation of the firms and the optimistic business climate that is being developed since the beginning of 2006, is expected to boost investments, while the consumption is expected to increase marginally. Labour market is rather resistant to economic crises, as employment at Euro zone has been increased by 1.4% in 2006 (1.2% in 2007). Correspondingly, unemployment will gradually decrease to 8.0% in 2006 and to 7.7% in 2007, varying though substantially among the country-states 1 . 3.2. The Greek Economy The Greek Economy has been growing with high rates since 2000. This performance ranks it at the higher levels of Euro zone. To a certain extent, this growth was due to the Olympic Games investments. However, maintaining such growth rates till today is an indication of some stable dynamic elements of the Greek economy. Greece achieved the highest GDP growth in 2001 (rate of 5.1%). The slow-down in 2002 (3.8%) was incidental and was due to the limited influence of the foreign sector on the economy. During the following year, GDP increased substantially, because of the increased investments for the Olympic Games. 2003-2004 is, thus, a period of strong economic growth, while investments constituted 27% of GDP (23-24% during the previous years). The slowdown in 2005 was expected and come naturally, as the financial framework was rigorous and 1 Besides, these conditions seem to reinforce IDC‘s predictions for some 1.5 million jobs in the ICT sector in the next 4 years. October 2006 Observatory for the Greek IS 12
Study of the ICT sector in Greece: Current Situation and Future Trends Deliverable 14: Prospects of the ICT sector in Greece-policy implications was characterized by limited public investments. However, the growth rate was still higher than the mean rate of Euro zone (approximately 2.6%). Structurally, domestic demand and more specifically private consumption is the driving force of the Greek economy. Despite the slow-down in 2005, Greece maintains high growth rates due to the increase of disposable income and because of easier access to credit in an environment of low interest rates. Taking into consideration of the latest data available, the services’ sector has a higher growth rate than the other sectors of the Greek economy, since services constitute approximately the 70% of GDP and employ 65% of the whole employees. In contrast, primary sector’s and manufacturing’s contribution is decreasing. Table 3: Main Economic Indicators –Quarterly National Accounts (provisional data, Constant prices 1995) Quarter GDP Final Consumption Investment Exports Imports mil. € Quarter % change mil. € Quarter % change mil. € Quarter % change mil. € Quarter % change mil. € Quarter % change 2000 94695 4,5% 81727 4,3% 23175 10,0% 24828 14,1% 35215 15,1% 2001 99510 5,1% 83904 2,7% 24318 4,9% 24568 -1,0% 33390 -5,2% 2002 103320 3,8% 87571 4,4% 25781 6,0% 22675 -7,7% 32934 -1,4% 2003 108861 4,8% 90301 3,1% 29310 13,7% 22901 1,0% 34417 4,5% 2004 113293 4,7% 94240 4,4% 30975 5,7% 25576 11,7% 37630 9,3% 2005 117437 3,7% 97621 3,6% 30593 -1,2% 26320 2,9% 37173 -1,2% a' 2005 29183 3,4% 24285 3,9% 7964 -0,7% 6086 6,4% 9167 2,3% b' 2005 29088 3,7% 23981 3,6% 7116 -4,2% 6552 2,2% 8587 -5,8% c' 2005 29616 3,8% 24622 3,4% 7584 -0,7% 6910 1,4% 9519 -2,2% d' 2005 29550 3,7% 24733 3,5% 7929 0,4% 6772 2,1% 9900 0,7% 2006 a' 2006 30383 4,1% 25111 3,4% 8515 6,9% 6193 1,8% 9436 2,9% b' 2006 30270 4,1% 24909 3,9% 8105 13,9% 6718 2,5% 9462 10,2% Source: National Statistical Service of Greece Table 4: Main Economic Indicators (constant prices 1995, annual % change) 2005 2006 2007 GDP 3,7 3,8 3,8 Private consumption 3,7 3,8 3,8 Public consumption 3,1 2,0 1,1 Investmentσ -1,4 8,8 7,4 Exports (goods and services) 3,0 5,3 6,5 Imports (goods and services) -1,2 6,6 7,0 Source: Budget 2007 draft, Ministry of Economy and Finance. October 2006 Observatory for the Greek IS 13
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