Prospects of the ICT sector in Greece

Study of the ICT sector in Greece: Current Situation and Future Trends
Deliverable 14: Prospects of the ICT sector in Greece- policy implications
Fiscal Year of 2006: Estimates
For the fiscal year of 2006, the only available at the time financial figures are the ones of the
Athens stock exchange listed companies (results on the first semester). First, estimation of
the total turnover of these companies is made for 2006. Then, the estimations for the total
figures are based on the share of these firms to the total ICT turnover (42%-44%), but also
on the annual change and their relation with the total change of the sector. According to the
analysis, the total turnover of ICTs sector will increase by 1.5% - 5%, while the average will
be approximately 3.2%. If retail trade is excluded, the turnover may increase by 4%.
In terms of the two main sectors (excluding retail trade), telecommunications seem to have
an advantage, as they will increase approximately at a rate of 4.5%, while the IT sector will
increase by 3.7%. In terms of sub-sectors, all subcategories seem to recover, except for
manufacturing, which will decrease by 4.2%. IT Services can achieve even a two-digit
increase (more than 12%), while wholesale trade of ICTs equipment is estimated to increase
by 5.2%. Telecommunications/Internet services providers turnover will exceed 6%, while the
turnover of Software products will increase by 7.8%, based on the customized software of
large multinational companies.
Fiscal Years 2007-2008: Estimates
The estimates for the next two years are calculated based on the 2002-2006 trends, but they
also incorporate certain basic assumptions, which have been described in this deliverable.
Therefore, it is excepted that growth rates can be even higher in comparison with the ones of
2006, given that the positive growth expectations (and more specifically the increase of public
and private investments in infrastructures that will lead to the improvement of broadband
infrastructures; the increase of electronic services provided by the state; the expected
support on expenses for ICTs, especially by firms, etc.) flourish and the basic barriers smooth
out (infrastructures, content, training actions).
In this framework, estimation for the top-50 enterprises (without retail) is made. Their
performance is more or less similar with the performance of the whole sector (although the
usually perform better). Thus, it is estimated that the increase in 2007 and 2008 can exceed
6%. The IT sector shows a more positive trend at a rate that can exceed 9%, while in
telecommunications the increase may be approximately 5%. In any case, it should be noted
that the gradual transition of all firms to the IFSS till 2008 could potentially cause more
intense changes and also decrease the aforementioned positive estimations.
October 2006
Observatory for the Greek IS 54