THE WORLD'S #1 POKER MANUAL - Card Games

Poker Book, Poker Odds
Investment odds are the estimated returns on money that is bet. These odds are approximated by the
following formula:
(potential size of pot, $) (probability of winning pot) = Investment Odds
potential loss, $
[Note: If you are a beginner or are not mathematically inclined, do not be discouraged or get
bogged down by this formula. Forget the formula for now and read on. With experience, you will
realize that accurate estimations of investment odds are achieved by the proper thinking methods
and not by mathematical problem-solving. This formula is merely a shorthand expression of the
thought process required for properly evaluating a bet.]
For example, if a player estimates that a $80 potential pot would require a $20 betting investment (his
potential loss), and if he estimates that his probability of winning that pot is .4 (40 percent),[ 7 ] then his
investment odds would be calculated as follows:
(80) (.4) = 1.6
20
When the investment odds are greater than 1.0, the play is favorable and should be made.
Investment odds are important for making correct betting and playing decisions. Most players rely only
on card odds, which often lead to wrong decisions. For example, investment odds sometimes favor
drawing to an inside straight. At other times, investment odds favor folding three aces before the draw.
In both cases, the wrong play may result if the decision is based on the card odds.
Determination of investment odds is not a mathematical problem. Numbers plugged into the investmentodds
formula are quick estimations or guesses derived by gathering together and then objectively
evaluating the facts of the game, players, and situation. Those estimations become more valid with
increased thinking effort and experience. While the good player may never actually use or even think
about the investment-odds formula, it does express his thought process for evaluating bets.
Quintin, Ted, and Scotty each draw one card. John Finn holds two low pair, tens and fours. What
does he do? He considers the card odds, the past betting, probable future betting, his observations
(e.g., of flashed cards), and his reading of each opponent ... and then estimates the following
investment odds:
Draw one card to his two pair. . .
http://www.neo-tech.com/poker/part1b.html (5 of 13)9/17/2004 12:17:33 PM
($200) (.2) = .66 = fold