Practical Poker Math

3. Odds in Texas Hold’em
must have money odds of 4 to 1 or better to justify a call.
In this same hand there are 2 opponents still involved in the
pot. As a student of game theory, you’ve tracked these two
opponents and calculated that there is a 50% chance they
will both fold to a bet or raise.
In the above example, if a player only considers his odds of
improvement, he has a 25% chance of winning and a 75%
chance of losing and needs money odds of something considerably
more than 3 to 1 to justify further participation in
the hand.
On the other hand, if you consider your 25% chance of
making the draw to win the pot and the 50% chance that
your opponents will fold to a bet or raise, your Total Odds of
winning the pot are approximately 60%. With a 60% chance
of winning you can participate with money odds of 2 to 1 or
even slightly less instead of the 4 to 1 required if you only
consider your 25% probability of improving the hand.
While it’s impossible to always accurately predict an opponent’s
hand or future actions, knowing basic odds and player
history will give you a strong indication.
One of the great values of the application of game theory
and the concept of Total Odds to poker is that it can help the
astute player discover value plays with good positive expectation
that might have otherwise remained hidden.
While it is harmful to your bottom line to play with an
underlay, it is equally harmful to your long-term success to
pass on value opportunities that offer significant positive
expectation.
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